Being the Gray Man or Woman

[tfish]

they’ll be none of the hungry mobs we’ve seen in all the ‘survival movies’. It’ll be more like one of those adverts put out by ‘save the children’ that put you off your lunch. You don’t see them trying to rush the aid wagons, most of the poor buggers look like they’ve enough on trying to stand up.

We arnt talking about people who live a life time of almost starvation here. This isn’t Africa and the people won’t be weakened and indifferent like a Ethiopian whose never owned or expected a thing in life.

Haven’t you seen what happens in Somalia with the aid trucks? The Troops often have to machine gun the air above the crowds because they are getting stormed.

Our pig headed "you owe us a living" society won’t sit back calmly and wait for the spoon to be passed around, they will take it.

As for we won’t see hungry mobs? we saw plenty of unhungry mobs in the summer doing what they pleased, so you think a little hunger in their bellys will subdue them do you, and make them less likely to act violently?

[bulldogeagle]

Our pig headed "you owe us a living" society won’t sit back calmly and wait for the spoon to be passed around, they will take it.

As for we won’t see hungry mobs? we saw plenty of unhungry mobs in the summer doing what they pleased, so you think a little hunger in their bellys will subdue them do you, and make them less likely to act violently?

although, it has to be said, we only saw the mobs in the cities, little rural towns like where i live just went on with "business as usual", probably because we dont have mobile phone shops or TV retailers or even furniture shops, we only have a small corner Co-op shop and it wont take 5 minutes for that to be emptied.

[tfish]

Small towns will be fine, the community spirit is still very strong there.

It’s still predominantly English living in the sticks, mostly families generations old... who feel linked to the very soil they live on.

Being a Gray Man won’t be so important in such places BUT the villages will become targets if the cities become uninhabitable and looters start to look elsewhere for supplies.

[bulldogeagle]

Small towns will be fine, the community spirit is still very strong there.

It’s still predominantly English living in the sticks, mostly families generations old... who feel linked to the very soil they live on.

Being a Gray Man won’t be so important in such places BUT the villages will become targets if the cities become uninhabitable and looters start to look elsewhere for supplies.

i fully agree with you there, but by the time it gets to that stage i will have Bugged Out to 1 of my 4 BOL's!!

[Vespa]

I think you have to make the distinction between people going hungry and genuinely starving. From a prepper’s perspective the first one is where the trouble lies.

If the government/army manages to maintain a semblance of order, that’s probably what you’re going to see, them taking control of what food there is and then rationing it to the public. On things for sure, it wouldn’t be much, certainly not the excesses people are used to. Yet at the same time it would be enough to keep them functioning. That could go on for weeks months or even years and where you’re really going to have to be the gray man if you chose to stay around population centres. (Personally I wouldn’t no ifs, no buts I’d be out of there.......) As bloke said though, if that’s what you’re going to do, you’re going to have to look like the rest of them.

On the other hand, if there is true starvation then the situation would be grim hellish and yet much more straight forward.

The chances are if it’s that bad there’s going to be no mains water so people will be drinking whatever they can get their hands on. Some will improvise crude filters and boil the stuff but I reckon most will take pot luck....causing all sorts of terrible diseases. So if we are talking a complete collapse of infrastructure they’ll be none of the hungry mobs we’ve seen in all the ‘survival movies’. It’ll be more like one of those adverts put out by ‘save the children’ that put you off your lunch. You don’t see them trying to rush the aid wagons, most of the poor buggers look like they’ve enough on trying to stand up.

Of course as callous as it sounds, preppers in that situation probably wouldn’t do too bad. As all those around them (and their wouldn’t be many) who’d survived the first few months would have one thing in common, that being they could feed themselves.

During the late seventies and early eighties when the threat of nuclear war with the Soviets was at it's highest the Government commissioned a study that looked into the effect on population of certain senarios.

One of the scenarios was a complete break down of law and order, transport, electric/water supply etc in short a real SHTF scenario. What they predicted was that the population would half every six months untill it stabilised at sub 10 million unless Law/Order, food supply etc could be re-established. After Six months pop' 30 Million, after Twelve months pop' 15 Million and after eighteen months 7.5Million. The study showed (or "guessed") that the majority of deaths would be from disease and later stavation.
That's not to say that gangs wouldn't roam the streets robbing and killing for food, but once it's gone it's gone, and with out the reward of food they would tend not to expend energy and put themselves in potentially threatening situations.

If you believe a total and complete break down is likely perhaps the best prep you could make is stockpilling water treatment tablets.

[coulesy]

@ Vespa any chance of you getting a copy or name of this study would be a good commute read?
Also i am a beliver in the break down of law and order in my opionion it is already happening just look at violence in schools, it is something i activly prep for and something that i think about a lot.

[bulldogeagle]

@ Vespa any chance of you getting a copy or name of this study would be a good commute read?
Also i am a beliver in the break down of law and order in my opionion it is already happening just look at violence in schools, it is something i activly prep for and something that i think about a lot.

Ditto, i think this would be an interesting read!

[Vespa]

@Coulsey and Bulldog.

Sorry Guys but I don’t have the report and didn’t read all of it. I read a précis of its conclusions some twenty five years ago and don’t remember all of the details. I only recall these details because of how stark it all sounded at the time.

The report in no way suggested that society was heading this way, and I personally don’t believe we are, but dealt with possible scenarios after a limited nuclear exchange with the Soviets.

The other stark point I remember was that even if the exchange was solely between the UK and the Soviets was that if we descended into that kind of chaos that we could expect very little (if any) help from the US or French or any other nation until after the population had stabilised. Presumably because any occupation (or invasion) force would then have to feed and pacify (or forcibly subdue) a population of less than 10 million which would be a very tall order in its self rather than a population of 50 or 60 million which would be impossible.

[bulldogeagle]

if the exchange was solely between the UK and the Soviets was that if we descended into that kind of chaos that we could expect very little (if any) help from the US or French or any other nation.

that doesent surprise anyone, the US only get involved if its to their advantage and since when have the French ever assisted us, we have spent more of our history fighting the French than any one else.

[tfish]

The first winter would take a large percentage, then the second winter would leave only the hardy and well stocked as most food suppys would have gone in the first 12 months.

With today’s society I would expect many of the survivors to be on non-uk origin.

Most of my white friends cant change a lightbulb while all the somali's and eastern europeans could skin a sheep with their feet.