Winter Blackouts

[Yorkshire Andy]

1 thing i didn't expect was when the power came back on the house alarm went mental, it seemed to do a full reset and kept screeching until settings were restored.

Get the SLA battery checked in The control panel and the one in the outside bell box your lucky to get about 6 years out of them from experience

[bikerjoe83]

I have to admit, blackouts have been right at the bottom of my list of potential 'disasters' but it's swiftly moving up the list of realistic scenarios.

[farnet]

BIKERJOE - I worked for a long time all over the power industry and for years it has been a recognised thing that sooner or later we are going to have blackouts...

Basically we are suffering from poor government decisions over decades for both the power stations and the actual infrastructure in some parts is just downright dangerous.

I got talking to one of the chief engineers in the control room of one of the power stations and he said that if the country doesn't go nuclear we are going to be in serious trouble as russia have most of europe by the proverbials because of the gas pipelines, and most of the coal power stations are coming close to retirement. As for renewables they are a waste of time as the lifespan of a wind terbine is a fraction of what the government are quoting, and when they are going to start needing repairing its going to cost a fortune, plus in the UK there are 2 times when the power is most needed..... when it's very hot and when its very cost, and in both those instances it is due to there being absolutely no wind..... discuss

I was warned at the time the UK was running on a 2% margin for power, and a potential cascade failure could be a reality (which happened in Hew Hampshire - USA a few years ago) which could knockout the powergrid for weeks (and possibly months) as getting one powerstation up and running is fairly easy in the grand scheme of things but mutliple becomes a nightmare as they all have to synchronise into the grids sine wave and each additional station creates an exponential increase in time to sync.

this isn't daily mail scare mongering, this is a fact, our first Nuke is going to take at least another 11 years before coming live and by then I would imagine we are going to lose 3+ coal powered stations. as some are already on extended usage and getting to the stage where they just physically cannot continue running without a complete and total overhaul.... it's only a matter of time

[grenfell]

You make some good points although I don't fully agree with everything you have said. As said if we were to go down the nuclear route then we should have started a decade or more ago. 11 years is probably optomistic for conception to production of nuclear generated electricity . Here wind does score well as a turbine can be up and running in as little as a year. Wind is also currently outstripping nuclear in terms of production although part of that is because of some nuclear being off line at present.
In terms of cost nuclear is also very expensive and of course we have no uranium so have to import. Check out the deals regarding Hinckly C. It's cost a billion so far and the estimated cost is £24.5 B which is a lot for the estimated 7% it will produce. Selafield is going to cost £67 B to clean up and similiar costs could be envisaged for Hinckley . Plus most of that money will be going to French and Chinese companies. There is also the problem of waste and the costs involved in that , and in the event of a serious event contamination from containment ponds especially could pose a very serious risk.
Looked at on it's own then you are right in saying that wind won't replace what we have but then it was never intended to , more it would work as part of a raft of renewables including wind, tidal , solar , geothermal , and hydro. I don't believe there is any one " answer" and we need to look at several forms of generation.
One thing that in reality is vital no matter what sort of generation is used is the introduction of TEQ's to limit consumption. Allowing unfettered access to energy has got us where we are now , we can't generate our way out of an energy crisis.
I'm disinclined to discuss Russia's actions. It could get very political . They have had sanctions imposed to destroy their economy for their singular failure to invade the Ukraine.

[preparedsurrey]

I think the only way we could currently have had security of energy supply was to not have closed all the mines, from memory we had several 100 years of coal reserves available when the closures started, had we continued to research into clean coal technology I think we would have been on a much more stable footing

[Yorkshire Andy]

BIKERJOE - I worked for a long time all over the power industry and for years it has been a recognised thing that sooner or later we are going to have blackouts...

Basically we are suffering from poor government decisions over decades for both the power stations and the actual infrastructure in some parts is just downright dangerous.

I got talking to one of the chief engineers in the control room of one of the power stations and he said that if the country doesn't go nuclear we are going to be in serious trouble as russia have most of europe by the proverbials because of the gas pipelines, and most of the coal power stations are coming close to retirement. As for renewables they are a waste of time as the lifespan of a wind terbine is a fraction of what the government are quoting, and when they are going to start needing repairing its going to cost a fortune, plus in the UK there are 2 times when the power is most needed..... when it's very hot and when its very cost, and in both those instances it is due to there being absolutely no wind..... discuss

I was warned at the time the UK was running on a 2% margin for power, and a potential cascade failure could be a reality (which happened in Hew Hampshire - USA a few years ago) which could knockout the powergrid for weeks (and possibly months) as getting one powerstation up and running is fairly easy in the grand scheme of things but mutliple becomes a nightmare as they all have to synchronise into the grids sine wave and each additional station creates an exponential increase in time to sync.

this isn't daily mail scare mongering, this is a fact, our first Nuke is going to take at least another 11 years before coming live and by then I would imagine we are going to lose 3+ coal powered stations. as some are already on extended usage and getting to the stage where they just physically cannot continue running without a complete and total overhaul.... it's only a matter of time

I agree with every word of that my father used to work on the stations round here.. other family members and friends still do...

outages like they used to do are simply not done.. (big overhaul services and maintenance to those not up on jargon) things are run till they break and are then patched up and bodged to work,,

Many stations "stores" are empty unlike under national power when they were fully stocked with anything you could think of,


Its a real mess.. then add the citties and towns constantly expanding placing more demand on the over head line network and substations that are running at full tilt just for day to day use

[farnet]

Hi Grenfell,

I worked for Horizon Nuclear Power before they got sold to Hitachi, and at that point the schedule was to have the first reactor live by 2025, so that is where I am basing my figures. I think the timescales to shutdown an existing reactor, commission a new new and bring it into production is about 15 years, (but those figures maybe out of date now).

The Russian thing is political, but I'm only interested in the bottom line, and there is a quantifyable risk that with the hightening animosity between the west and east that could be used as a way of blackmailing europe into submission.

[farnet]

Hi Grenfell,

As for the costs of Nuclear, yup they are massive, in the grand scheme of thing the UK has been very lucky so far. Even though there are lots of people in trouble due to the energy costs at the moment, the UK in general is still one of the cheapest countries in Europe for energy, so yes all this stuff is expensive and I'd imagine the cost of energy is going to increase dramatically in the near furture to pay for it (and bring it in line with european prices)... this is just some educated guesswork as I haven't been in the industry for a few years but I still look at the available figures and it's something the regulators and the government just don't want people to know it's trendy to blame the energy companies, and yes they do deserve some of the critisism, but as the providers are basically making crap all profit (they make about 3 - 4% profit a year, which most other businesses wouldn't accept) in the retail market and I wouldn't be surprised if more than one of the big 6 leave the UK market in the next few years.

Sorry sidetracked, it's something that ive seen from all sides and it is a complete mess in the UK

[grenfell]

Yeah , now I do agree with the comment about it being a mess and I don't believe there is such a thing as an easy answer. I've said it loads of times that the introduction of TEQ's would be the cheapest and most cost effective option but unless there was agreement across the spectrum such a move would be politically inexpedient and probably suicidal . Any party that brings in rationing on it's own will soon be out of office. Spending money to super insulate every home in the country would be cost effective as would efforts to reduce waste , we've all seen buildings with the lights , and heating on when nobody is there.
I have read a comment on a different site about fusion. It was posted by a friend of someone working in that field and the comment was that precious little has so far been achieved and it would probably take several generational leaps to get it up and running. But , it was added it could be worth it to throw huge sums at it as the results would be truly life changing .
One thing that amuses , or is that irritates , me is when politicians talk about energy security . The most recent case was with fracked gas talk of security for the country but at the same time talking about the export market . Same thing happened with all the oil , exported in the 80's at $30-40 per barrel and now we are importing some 40% of our consumption.

[farnet]

yup I agree, the UK has become a desperate consumer rather than a proud supplier, and I think Fracking maybe a (shortlived) way to bring us back into a viable and competetive country again.

Unfortunately this country is mainly living on our historic exploits and we are now left in a enviorment that is full of debt. We have allies, but think of how the allies helped us in WWII, we were given credit by the USA (which we only just paid off a few years ago),The USA had a fantastic 50's and 60's after the war (the only country to ever profit from a war I think) where the UK was still on rationing. if you have ever read the book band of brothers, the US soldier were quite derogatory about the UK and the poverty brought on by the war etc. and referred to the Brits as smelly.

Anyway as ever I'm digressing, I'm assuming you are referring to Wave Teq, and that is one area I think would work really well in british waters, the snake style looks amazing and due to all the massive currents we have the generation would be endless, and it would be beneficial to the marine life as well. I think the only issue would be for fishing, which in the grand scheme of thing is small potatoes.