Cost of living crisis around the world

[Stonecarver]

https://news.trust.org/item/20220714145 ... ent=thread

[jansman]

It’s where we are at. The New Real. So what are we doing about it,on this prepper site? Let’s get some positives.

[itsybitsy]

I can honestly only focus on what's happening in this country and our close proximity neighbours at the moment, I don't have any more headspace for further afield.

[jansman]

I can honestly only focus on what's happening in this country and our close proximity neighbours at the moment, I don't have any more headspace for further afield.

Nor do I.

[GillyBee]

Coming soon to a town near you (If not already there)

• Lots of stressed, cold, hungry and indebted people who are at increased risk of making bad decisions,
  Increased crime from shoplifting to mugging to burglary to sheep rustling,
  Kids quitting education in favour of trying to earn some money for their families, legally or otherwise,
  Increases in protests, riots etc as people complain about their lot. These may be violent,
  Either rationing or sky high prices. Either way there won't be much to go around at affordable prices but the rich will probably manage just fine. Black markets thrive along with the "back of a lorry",
  Reduced public services and utilities. Water quality may drop, utilities outages become more common, medical services prove inadequate,
  Police/judicial services can only take the most pressing cases - which may be the ones for the well connected. Increased crime with reduced police leads to vigilantism,

All show up in any country where there is an economic collapse. The only variable is how bad it all gets. The actual political sysem is irrelevant. The Surviving in Argentina blog describes this in Argentina 20 years ago, and the same has happened in Venzuela a couple of years ago and many other collapses too.

[izzy_mack]

Coming soon to a town near you (If not already there)

• Lots of stressed, cold, hungry and indebted people who are at increased risk of making bad decisions,
  Increased crime from shoplifting to mugging to burglary to sheep rustling,
  Kids quitting education in favour of trying to earn some money for their families, legally or otherwise,
  Increases in protests, riots etc as people complain about their lot. These may be violent,
  Either rationing or sky high prices. Either way there won't be much to go around at affordable prices but the rich will probably manage just fine. Black markets thrive along with the "back of a lorry",
  Reduced public services and utilities. Water quality may drop, utilities outages become more common, medical services prove inadequate,
  Police/judicial services can only take the most pressing cases - which may be the ones for the well connected. Increased crime with reduced police leads to vigilantism,

All show up in any country where there is an economic collapse. The only variable is how bad it all gets. The actual political sysem is irrelevant. The Surviving in Argentina blog describes this in Argentina 20 years ago, and the same has happened in Venzuela a couple of years ago and many other collapses too.

Pretty well sums it up, doesn't it

[jennyjj01]

All show up in any country where there is an economic collapse. The only variable is how bad it all gets. The actual political sysem is irrelevant. The Surviving in Argentina blog describes this in Argentina 20 years ago, and the same has happened in Venzuela a couple of years ago and many other collapses too.

Hi GillyBee,

I did a google searches for "Surviving in argentina Blog" and "Argentina Collapse" and stumbled through a few interesting 'other prepping' sites. Thanks.

As one site put it ..."The economic collapse of Argentina in 2001 is the stuff of prepper legends. For years, it was the example that we pointed to when trying to convince others that, yes, it really can happen."

It was a multi decade collapse that I'd never been aware of, but leads to some clues to what preppers need to focus on.

One interesting common indicator was the role of International debt. It seems when the IMF gets involved, the writing is on the wall. So if we ever see our leaders go cap in hand for international loans, recognise the signs and redouble those preps.

Argentina seems a good template for societal collapse from a wealthy nation to a desperate one. Some remarkable similarities to Sri Lanka: Corruption at the top, International debt, Fuel crisis, hyperinflation. And uprisings which were put down.

Utilities and Clean water seemed to be an early and long term loss.
Healthcare unavailable..
Loss of the value of your money in the bank or in your stocks, shares and pension fund.
Foreclosures and seizures of property.
Rocketing food prices.
Street crime and collapse of social norms, where you are just as likely to be robbed by a 'smart young couple' as some group of hoodlums.

The common theme in advice is to build resilience NOW. Long term food reserves for sure: Self reliance skills and the ability to make food: Medical self reliance: Skills to fix things: Secure your own future water and food supply: DON'T rely on the state. The State might be the cause of the crisis.

Off now to research Venezuela

[Frnc]

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world, in the top 10.
Wages as a % of national income fell from 60% in the '50s, to below 18% around 2001, and at this point a further 30% cut was being demanded! This decline began in the 70s or 80s and accelerated in the 90s.
To cut a long story short, Peronist state intervention of the past turned to free market neo-liberal polices in the 90s. Privatisation was happening on a big scale, virtually everything was sold, with foreign companies buying industries on the cheap.
Then came the dollar peg.
Wiki: "The Convertibility plan was a plan by the Argentine Currency Board that pegged the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar between 1991 and 2002 in an attempt to eliminate hyperinflation and stimulate economic growth. While it initially met with considerable success, the board's actions ultimately failed."
The Peso was pegged to the dollar at 1 to 1. When the dollar went up, Argentinian goods cost more, so their exports fell. Brazil (an important trading partner) devalued, and this hit exports even harder.
Debt rose, foreign investments stopped, and there were no assets left for the government to sell.
The IMF demanded austerity, which made things worse.
Around 2001/2 Argentina defaulted on debt. A new government tried to go back to Peronism. They uncoupled from the dollar. The economy recovered after a few years, but Argentia defaulted again in 2014 and 2020.

[jennyjj01]

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world, in the top 10.

Venezuela was also in the top 10 by GDP per capita. (an awkward measure)

Basically, both nations had lots of resources, Agriculture and Oil. Both fell from their highs as a consequence of their leaders mismanagement and alleged corruption. Argentina had lots of Privatization and Venezuela had lots of Nationalization. So political opposites. Both ended up going cap in hand to the IMF

Interestingly ...

"The single most important factor in this decline [of Argentina] has been political instability since 1930,"

and for Venezuela

Venezuela was "probably the world's worst-managed economy"

So, things to look out for as harbingers of doom : Political instability : Corruption : National Debt Default : IMF Loans

We see those facets in Sri Lanka. I don't yet think those are obvious in the UK or EU. YET.

[Frnc]

Venezuela, too complicated for me. I remember once reading about their currency and how it related to other currencies. They had three different exchange rates, at the same time. And people with money were buying dollars at 100 x the official price. It's a shame because I got the impression Chavez genuinely wanted to help his people, especially the poor. There was a Venezuelan girl in my class at uni studying geology. She was going back there to work in the oil industry. I wonder what happened to her.