Long time survivalist/prepper, new to this forum- hello from Oxfordshire

[Frnc]

no one comes up with a figure

Figure for what?

Sorry was meant to say fix i was high on pain pills and in pain while typing the reply sorry .
Well i just keep prepping and having the garden burns of fire wood and enjoying the bbq before they want them banned to

Ah, sorry to hear about the pain.
There is no fix for the climate, but that's not to say it's not worth trying. If the world stopped GHG emissions tomorrow, we could limit the earth to 2° warming, and return to normal in a relatively short time period (could still be hundreds of years). But of course that's not possible. If by some miracle we drastically reduce emissions in the next decade or two, maybe it's still possible.
The other pathway is 8° warming in the long term, returning to normal thousands of years later!
Even 2° is a disaster. 8 is unimaginable. The ice age was caused by 5-6° cooling, and it put mile thick ice over parts of Europe and America.

The reason for the big jump between the two warming trajectories is feedbacks. Warming causes more warming. For example melting tundra releases GHGs. Warmer oceans hold less CO2. Melting ice allows more sun to hit the ocean or land. Drought causes rainforests to stop absorbing CO2. We don't know exactly when each tipping point will happen to trigger feedbacks, or the exact speed or scale.

The ends of glacial cycles are triggered by Milankovitch cycles, but most of the warming is feedbacks.


https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

[XRS001]

If human emissions were our only problem it would be fine and work according to some models, however CO2 is not the only GHG. No body knows how much CH4 is locked into the Arctic ocean hydrates. The Arctic ocean is less than 50m deep so as it warms it will release those hydrates. The 2° trajectory is the new marker since the predictors realised that 1.5° was going to be overshot. As we start to reaslch 2° the next figure will be 2.5°. Before climate change was a mainstream topic the IPCC had been recommending 1°, 1.1° etc & no one was listening & scientists that went public were threatened ir lost their jobs. Dr James E Hansen is only going public since he has retired. Dr Guy McPhearson used to be a preppper until he stopped after reading about aerosol masking. Extinction at around 2° is a very real possibility because of the following factors:

Overshoot #overshoot is a twitter Hashtag https://www.earthovershoot.org/
We are consuming more than nature can put back.
Vast swathes of the northern boreal forests are ablaze.
10% of the Amazon is lost forever.
The oceans are the lungs of the world and they are overfished & overheating and becoming ecological deserts.
Habitat for humans is now depleted. We have broken the earths cooling systems. This is why we are in the midst of a mass extinction by our own hand.

So why prep? To ease the downwards slide.

[XRS001]

What is needed is a paradigm shift in how humans see themselves on this planet. It doesn't belong to us. Indigenous people have mostly seen themselves as care takers of the land.

If we need to forage/hunt /fish to survive then we need to use our intelligence in exactly the same way that our distant ancestors did. The notion that living off the land is somehow wierd or dirty is deeply flawed, everything you eat is grown or raised off the land, you just aren't involved in that process. Now is the time to learn those skills & get good at them- reindigenise yourself to your locality learn to know every plant and animal moving through your locality.

[jennyjj01]

What is needed is a paradigm shift in how humans see themselves on this planet. It doesn't belong to us. Indigenous people have mostly seen themselves as care takers of the land.

If we need to forage/hunt /fish to survive then we need to use our intelligence in exactly the same way that our distant ancestors did. The notion that living off the land is somehow wierd or dirty is deeply flawed, everything you eat is grown or raised off the land, you just aren't involved in that process. Now is the time to learn those skills & get good at them- reindigenise yourself to your locality learn to know every plant and animal moving through your locality.

Hmm....
Over many centuries and many phases of fundamental agricultural revolution, we've had more productivity. That's more food per hectare and more food per agricultural worker. As we were able to feed more, we naturally grew our population, who felt 'entitled' to be fed. Soon enough we recognised that we could use our infinite* fossil fuel supply to drive even more growth. And off we accelerated. Then we discovered that our fossil fuel is not infinite. And so we are hitting a wall. Sending more of us off to work on the land won't fix that. It would undo such productivity gains. We need to hang on to that productivity.
I'm sorry. Sending us back to our indigenous roots will NOT feed us. We NEED all those productivity improvements just to stand still on food production and just to feed our existing population..
And I can see no way out of this. Check out ... https://studycorgi.com/the-oil-we-eat-b ... d-manning/

I'm all for myself and fellow preppers learning to make food, but for selfish reasons. It will never be more efficient for me to create my own food as an individual as it would be for a factory farmer, or variety of such farms to feed me and the rest of us. Simple efficiency of scale.
Every kilo of food I grow will be a kilo of business lost by Lidl and one less secure shop assistant. If I benefit, somebody else loses MORE than I benefited.

[XRS001]

At 1.5-2° warming Agriculture will collapse. Its already in crisis now.

It won't be long before it won't be possible to grow grain at scale. This is what we mean by loss of habitat for humans.

[XRS001]

Consider that we are in the midst of a mass extinction.

The planet is at 1.3° warmer than pre industrial. The 2024 El Niňo coupled with the lunar maximum could push us to 1.5°within 2 years as predicted by climate and meteorologists. We are now beyond peak oil.

Oil & coal are civilisations addiction. Millions of years of carbon capture released. Attempting to recapture it would be trying to brake the laws of physics.

The UN, following COP26 in Glasgow said that humans need to adapt to climate change.

[jennyjj01]

Consider that we are in the midst of a mass extinction.

The planet is at 1.3° warmer than pre industrial. The 2024 El Niňo coupled with the lunar maximum could push us to 1.5°within 2 years as predicted by climate and meteorologists. We are now beyond peak oil.

Oil & coal are civilisations addiction. Millions of years of carbon capture released. Attempting to recapture it would be trying to brake the laws of physics.

The UN, following COP26 in Glasgow said that humans need to adapt to climate change.

I don't disagree. it's just a matter of timescales. In geological terms 100 or even 1000 years is nothing. As a species we are probably in for a 5h1tty century or so, with no hope in sight. There will be nations that last longer and even might seem to prosper and there will be nations that will die on someone's primetime TV news.

[XRS001]

Consider that we are in the midst of a mass extinction.

The planet is at 1.3° warmer than pre industrial. The 2024 El Niňo coupled with the lunar maximum could push us to 1.5°within 2 years as predicted by climate and meteorologists. We are now beyond peak oil.

Oil & coal are civilisations addiction. Millions of years of carbon capture released. Attempting to recapture it would be trying to brake the laws of physics.

The UN, following COP26 in Glasgow said that humans need to adapt to climate change.

I don't disagree. it's just a matter of timescales. In geological terms 100 or even 1000 years is nothing. As a species we are probably in for a 5h1tty century or so, with no hope in sight. There will be nations that last longer and even might seem to prosper and there will be nations that will die on someone's primetime TV news.

Collapse is already here for some island states.

I really believe that how we end our last days on the planet is very important. We know what the problem is & that there is no solution.

[Frnc]

Attempting to recapture it would be trying to brake the laws of physics.

It's sci fi. They opened a CC plant recently somewhere. A dop in the ocean. You'd need millions of them, an industry as big as any major industry. You need a lot of land for that.

[XRS001]

Attempting to recapture it would be trying to brake the laws of physics.

It's sci fi. They opened a CC plant recently somewhere. A dop in the ocean. You'd need millions of them, an industry as big as any major industry. You need a lot of land for that.

As I have said it breaks the laws of physics. It actually can't be done.

In the same way that the economy cannot be greened with more solar and wind turbines this is called techno-utopianism its led by people like George Monbiot & Mark Lynas. Their dream is for lab grown meat, carbs and oils using GM, hydrogen and solar energy. They have a lobby group in Brussels funded by big pharmaceutical companies who own the technology to do this. Those 2 are massive fans nuclear energy too.

The problem is that all this requires oil..