In the event of nuclear war...

[Shrews]

Ok, I was a little unsure where to put this thread, so please move if it's more suitable elsewhere.

The purpose of it is to question and seek opinions on some realities that might exist in the days leading up to impact, the minutes (if any) before explosion, the explosion itself, the immediate aftermath and the weeks, months, years that follow.

I think we've all seen the movies, Threads, Day After etc and seen many of the YouTube clips out there, but if I'm honest none of it has appeared 'real' to me, so questions I have are ones that are not really addressed in those movies and clips (or of course, they've gone over my head).

Days leading up to impact
What signs will be enough to get the public panicking and therefore stocks diminishing? As we know many won't bother, but many will. Will it need a government call to 'get prepared'?

At the point where you (not the government) decide there is an imminent risk what are your actions?:
- Get out of the country - if so, are you giving up work completely, going on the sick, taking holiday? What are the realities of that, if thousands, if not millions decide to do the same?
- Move out to the countryside?
- Get preparing your home shelter - which may involve dismantling your house, securing windows, sandbagging etc (all under the eyes of your neighbours, who may well be eyeing you up as someone prepared and to go to after impact).

The minutes leading to impact
- Will there be any warning?
- If you are at work, have you already started prepping at work, or perhaps more to the point, at what point will your company start prepping? In an 8 hour day there's a 30% chance you will be at work for 5 days a week.
- If you are at home and there is a warning and assuming you have a shelter built in your home, which likely includes windows secured etc then will the gas supply be automatically shut off (likewise water and electric) or will we be expected to do this?

The explosion (and assuming you are in your shelter)
We are all familiar with the heat and blast, but I have some questions as some of that seems to be a little unclear. In an air burst, and assuming you are not directly below it, the downward pressure is like stamping a foot on an ant. Basically, as I understand it, this is then flattening your house from above. Secondary, once this pressure hits the ground it then spreads out horizontally at the speeds we have become familiar with.

In a ground burst the pressure from above 'the stamp' isn't apparent and only the horizontal blast winds exist.

So,
- in our shelters, we must open our mouths otherwise our ear drums get burst, but the immediate concern in our home, if we survive the heat due to adequate protection, will be fire. At what point do you leave the shelter to go and fight the fire (and assuming you have fire fighting equipment etc)? There may well be risk of another explosion. I see many shelter videos where people cover their shelters with mattresses etc, but surely as we see in any household fire, these are flammable items, as would be your sofa, carpet, curtains etc? If you have left the gas on, this too will be exploding around you. Fighting the fire will be extremely difficult and in close proximity to other buildings a likely firestorm scenario will exist, sucking oxygen from the air.

Question: How close in proximity will these buildings need to be to cause a firestorm? (this could help the decision in leaving the country etc)

Equally, your unprepared neighbours homes could be on fire and as they have been unprepared likely they are burnt or severely injured and unable to fight their own house fires. This fire if left unattended could spread to your own. So are you helping to put out their fires? Also, they will be in desperate need of medical attention and possibly screaming for your help. Given that you have 10 minutes before any fall out falls, are you helping them?

The immediate aftermath (hours after)
There will be screaming from neighbours and animals. You have decided not to help. You are in your shelter which has withstood the heat and blast. The neighbours likely know that you are prepared, any survivors are now in the direct line of fall out and they are desperate. Likely they will not be ignoring your preparation. They will have weapons, even if only kitchen knives or blunt instruments. They may well be ganging up on your inhumanity to help them. Perhaps for the next 12 hours you are in extreme risk of attack from them. How are you prepping for this?

The days after
Your neighbours will be dying off. Mentally and physically you will be exhausted and have some sort on injury to attend to. You could well have infection setting in that needs antibiotics. Is this a prepping item that is available to stock up on via the internet? This is of course assuming your shelter is secure from fall out.

I have read mixed advice on air purification and ventilation. The basics are that inside the shelter it is going to get suffocatingly hot and also you need oxygen. But the fall out outside must not get inside your shelter. I have read that enough protection can be as little as a pipe with suitable paper protection and u-bend dust trap to needing a mechanical air filtration unit. What is the truth here? With cost and availability in question what is realistic? And ultimately is it better to just spend the money on getting out of the country?

The weeks and months after.
At some stage, you are going to have to leave your shelter. There will likely be at least some sort of local emergency set up and if you join these people will likely need to do your duty, perhaps putting you at extreme risk when you have prepared to lessen the risk. What was the point in prepping at all if you are now going to throw it all away? So do you join them, or leave them? Do you have a prepped rural retreat to go to avoid 'doing your duty'?

One thing that is not discussed (not seen it anywhere) is the two possibilities of
1. Aid from other countries. Would we see help arrive from perhaps our southern hemisphere? Would the northern hemisphere be seen as a lost cause and the only thing that can be done is to evacuate the country?
2. A more likely scenario is that we would still be at war. Allies to our enemy perhaps still functioning. With a decimated army and people, military defence minimal, no allies to help us, would we now be at risk of invasion and being under the control of our enemies allies?

None of the above takes into account the longer term concerns of nuclear winter which, in the northern hemisphere at least, could well deliver the final blow,

Conclusion
It seems to me that the best expenditure on prepping is to get out of the country when you have decided that nuclear war is imminent. How you do that is perhaps the best preparation you can do (is there such thing as a nuclear war preparation decision tree?). Once that decision is made then you will need the finance and know-how to exist in a foreign country whilst the world goes mad around you.

Lots of questions, I know! But that's how I see it at the moment. We are in a pre-war state. It is possible that the situations above could well become real very quickly. So, how do you see it?

[jennyjj01]

Loads of questions to mull over...

Days leading up to impact
What signs will be enough to get the public panicking and therefore stocks diminishing? As we know many won't bother, but many will. Will it need a government call to 'get prepared'?

Notwithstanding an event can happen unanticipated at any time.... I suspect the call to action will be a nuclear event elsewhere in the world, such as a tactical nuke in Ukraine or Maybe Israel to Iran.

The minutes leading to impact
- Will there be any warning?
- If you are at work, have you already started prepping at work, or perhaps more to the point, at what point will your company start prepping? In an 8 hour day there's a 30% chance you will be at work for 5 days a week.
- If you are at home and there is a warning and assuming you have a shelter built in your home, which likely includes windows secured etc then will the gas supply be automatically shut off (likewise water and electric) or will we be expected to do this?

I expect no useful '3min' warning.

The explosion (and assuming you are in your shelter)
We are all familiar with the heat and blast, but I have some questions as some of that seems to be a little unclear. In an air burst, and assuming you are not directly below it, the downward pressure is like stamping a foot on an ant. Basically, as I understand it, this is then flattening your house from above. Secondary, once this pressure hits the ground it then spreads out horizontally at the speeds we have become familiar with.

In a ground burst the pressure from above 'the stamp' isn't apparent and only the horizontal blast winds exist.

So,
- in our shelters, we must open our mouths otherwise our ear drums get burst, but the immediate concern in our home, if we survive the heat due to adequate protection, will be fire. At what point do you leave the shelter to go and fight the fire (and assuming you have fire fighting equipment etc)? There may well be risk of another explosion. I see many shelter videos where people cover their shelters with mattresses etc, but surely as we see in any household fire, these are flammable items, as would be your sofa, carpet, curtains etc? If you have left the gas on, this too will be exploding around you. Fighting the fire will be extremely difficult and in close proximity to other buildings a likely firestorm scenario will exist, sucking oxygen from the air.

Question: How close in proximity will these buildings need to be to cause a firestorm? (this could help the decision in leaving the country etc)

Equally, your unprepared neighbours homes could be on fire and as they have been unprepared likely they are burnt or severely injured and unable to fight their own house fires. This fire if left unattended could spread to your own. So are you helping to put out their fires? Also, they will be in desperate need of medical attention and possibly screaming for your help. Given that you have 10 minutes before any fall out falls, are you helping them?

Short answer: Be transactional. Unprepped neighbours can go whistle unless helping them has value to me.

The immediate aftermath (hours after)
There will be screaming from neighbours and animals. You have decided not to help. You are in your shelter which has withstood the heat and blast. The neighbours likely know that you are prepared, any survivors are now in the direct line of fall out and they are desperate. Likely they will not be ignoring your preparation. They will have weapons, even if only kitchen knives or blunt instruments. They may well be ganging up on your inhumanity to help them. Perhaps for the next 12 hours you are in extreme risk of attack from them. How are you prepping for this?

OPSEC. A Friend in need is a PITA. NO-ONE needs to know you are a prepper. There will come a time for selecting your new gang allegiances, but you need some of the dead wood to expire naturally.

The days after
Your neighbours will be dying off. Mentally and physically you will be exhausted and have some sort on injury to attend to. You could well have infection setting in that needs antibiotics. Is this a prepping item that is available to stock up on via the internet? This is of course assuming your shelter is secure from fall out.

I have read mixed advice on air purification and ventilation. The basics are that inside the shelter it is going to get suffocatingly hot and also you need oxygen. But the fall out outside must not get inside your shelter. I have read that enough protection can be as little as a pipe with suitable paper protection and u-bend dust trap to needing a mechanical air filtration unit. What is the truth here? With cost and availability in question what is realistic? And ultimately is it better to just spend the money on getting out of the country?

I have no nuclear shelter to concern myself with. That's hardcore survivalism.

The weeks and months after.
At some stage, you are going to have to leave your shelter. There will likely be at least some sort of local emergency set up and if you join these people will likely need to do your duty, perhaps putting you at extreme risk when you have prepared to lessen the risk. What was the point in prepping at all if you are now going to throw it all away? So do you join them, or leave them? Do you have a prepped rural retreat to go to avoid 'doing your duty'?

One thing that is not discussed (not seen it anywhere) is the two possibilities of
1. Aid from other countries. Would we see help arrive from perhaps our southern hemisphere? Would the northern hemisphere be seen as a lost cause and the only thing that can be done is to evacuate the country?
2. A more likely scenario is that we would still be at war. Allies to our enemy perhaps still functioning. With a decimated army and people, military defence minimal, no allies to help us, would we now be at risk of invasion and being under the control of our enemies allies?

None of the above takes into account the longer term concerns of nuclear winter which, in the northern hemisphere at least, could well deliver the final blow,

Choose your gang/allegiances as things develop.

Conclusion
It seems to me that the best expenditure on prepping is to get out of the country when you have decided that nuclear war is imminent. How you do that is perhaps the best preparation you can do (is there such thing as a nuclear war preparation decision tree?). Once that decision is made then you will need the finance and know-how to exist in a foreign country whilst the world goes mad around you.

Lots of questions, I know! But that's how I see it at the moment. We are in a pre-war state. It is possible that the situations above could well become real very quickly. So, how do you see it?

See it as an existential threat. But just as happy to be at ground zero as to be at a secluded safe desert island.
Worst case scenario is a refugee in any middle ground.

[Kiwififer]

There’s nowhere to run to.

There’s nowhere to hide.

The government would in all likelihood impose a travel ban so unless you have a yacht, you couldn’t get out of the country.

I can see Edinburgh Castle from my window, it’s the natural aiming point for any missile coming in and Edinburgh is one of the main targets up here.

So what would I do? I would crack open my best bottle of whisky, a limited edition cask strength Ben Romach and watch the missile come in. One quick flash and it would be over and done with as there’s nothing else I could do.

[jansman]

There’s nowhere to run to.

There’s nowhere to hide.

The government would in all likelihood impose a travel ban so unless you have a yacht, you couldn’t get out of the country.

I can see Edinburgh Castle from my window, it’s the natural aiming point for any missile coming in and Edinburgh is one of the main targets up here.

So what would I do? I would crack open my best bottle of whisky, a limited edition cask strength Ben Romach and watch the missile come in. One quick flash and it would be over and done with as there’s nothing else I could do.

Not just me thinking that way then?

[Arzosah]

This is an interesting post - wide ranging, and very well put. Though I'm not as optimistic as you, Shrews, certainly not for my own survival (female pensioner with chronic fatigue here!), I think things would be even worse than you're imagining. But there are still some things to comment on:

Days leading up to impact
At the point where you (not the government) decide there is an imminent risk what are your actions?:
- Get out of the country - What are the realities of that, if thousands, if not millions decide to do the same?
- Move out to the countryside?
- Get preparing your home shelter - which may involve dismantling your house, securing windows, sandbagging etc (all under the eyes of your neighbours, who may well be eyeing you up as someone prepared and to go to after impact).

I'd probably get prepared - and give advice to any of my family who might want to do the same. My family is very small these days, I don't imagine it would cause me huge problems to do that. Neighbours, I'd probably be out there hand-wringing as camouflage. If it's survivable, eg ends up being only one nuke before someone calls an end to the madness, then I want to survive.

The minutes leading to impact
- Will there be any warning?
- If you are at home and there is a warning and assuming you have a shelter built in your home, which likely includes windows secured etc then will the gas supply be automatically shut off (likewise water and electric) or will we be expected to do this?

As I say, I'm retired. I'm on holiday soon to Malta, and it would be just my luck for war to break out while I'm out there so in that case, I'm a goner. I'd shut my own utilities off - I don't know *how* to shut off the gas, actually, that's some research needed.

The explosion (and assuming you are in your shelter)
In our shelters, we must open our mouths otherwise our ear drums get burst, but the immediate concern in our home, if we survive the heat due to adequate protection, will be fire. At what point do you leave the shelter to go and fight the fire (and assuming you have fire fighting equipment etc)? There may well be risk of another explosion. I see many shelter videos where people cover their shelters with mattresses etc, but surely as we see in any household fire, these are flammable items, as would be your sofa, carpet, curtains etc? If you have left the gas on, this too will be exploding around you. Fighting the fire will be extremely difficult and in close proximity to other buildings a likely firestorm scenario will exist, sucking oxygen from the air.

Question: How close in proximity will these buildings need to be to cause a firestorm? (this could help the decision in leaving the country etc)

I don't think anybody local would expect me to be one of the people fighting the fires. As to what's needed to create a firestorm - I live in a small dormitory town in the south of England with lots of open spaces, which include streams, I doubt a firestorm would start here. If it does, I don't know ... get out before it sucks you in? The death toll is terrible in firestorms.

Equally, your unprepared neighbours homes could be on fire and as they have been unprepared likely they are burnt or severely injured and unable to fight their own house fires. This fire if left unattended could spread to your own. So are you helping to put out their fires? Also, they will be in desperate need of medical attention and possibly screaming for your help. Given that you have 10 minutes before any fall out falls, are you helping them?

I don't think so, to be honest. I'd be completely freaked out by the screaming, yes, but I think if I was uninjured myself, I'd just stay quiet. Horrible though it is to say so.

The immediate aftermath (hours after)
There will be screaming from neighbours and animals. You have decided not to help. You are in your shelter which has withstood the heat and blast. The neighbours likely know that you are prepared, any survivors are now in the direct line of fall out and they are desperate. Likely they will not be ignoring your preparation. They will have weapons, even if only kitchen knives or blunt instruments. They may well be ganging up on your inhumanity to help them. Perhaps for the next 12 hours you are in extreme risk of attack from them. How are you prepping for this?

I doubt any neighbours know I have some preps. If a door-to-door check was instituted by the Neighbourhood Watch or something, I'll have a reply prepared for them, something like, I'm okay, I'm just catching my breath, I'll be out later. If I was attacked? Even in this scenario, that goes beyond what the guidelines on here say we can discuss. Actually, I have no clue. The only attacks I'm prepared for are from flying insects (fly screens ) and spiders (Raid aerosol and a stick with a dull point to get into corners as well as a flat surface to whack them on the floor if I can't get at them to stamp on them. Phobic, moi?).

The days after
Your neighbours will be dying off. Mentally and physically you will be exhausted and have some sort on injury to attend to. You could well have infection setting in that needs antibiotics. Is this a prepping item that is available to stock up on via the internet? This is of course assuming your shelter is secure from fall out.

Honestly, most of the rest of this isn't for me to answer. Unless it's literally only one, and the politicians suddenly grow up and stop slinging nuclear weapons about, I don't think nuclear war is survivable for 95% of the UK, we're too small, we don't have the traditions or the ability of civil defence any more. Most of us don't even have cellars.

As you refer to occasionally, the best response to nuclear war for someone living in the UK is to get out - but waiting to do that until it's imminent will still kill you. Fallout doesn't stop because you're afloat. And where are you going to?

I'd be interested to see your own answers to your questions, Shrews.

[Shrews]

@Kiwififer

Of course, that is what many people hope, but it's not a certainty. With regards to myself I would want to be part of the civilisation that gets the world, if not the northern hemisphere wasteland, back on it's feet for future generations. Because when life is good, it's really good and worth fighting for (especially as we might be the only ones out there in the universe). Even if normality takes 1000 years, it has to begin somewhere.

But, just to address the point on waiting for the flash and therefore likely incineration.

1. There is no guarantee you will be at your home when it happens. It's possible there will be no warning at all. Electric and utilities lost might be a sign of an EMP somewhere and that could be a warning to get home quick.

2. The nuke might be taken out by missile defence (assuming we have a defence that works). Many will get through, some won't.

3. If it does get through it may well not be as accurate as thought, a few miles inaccuracy would make it a very different scenario.

Basically, for anybody, thinking it is certain you will be incinerated, it is far from certain. Unless you live in central London and not underground at the time of impact.

Therefore, if you survive, the likelihood is that your injuries will be far greater than somebody who has prepped. Burns, fractures, open wounds, eye and ear damage, loss of limbs are all likely if you have decided to stay in the centre of a city with say 200,000 people. This potentially is your reality at that point if you have decided not to prep (which includes leaving the area).

At that point, you have to make a decision. You wanted to die, so it makes sense that you still now want to die, do you then take your own life. The reality is that your human survival response kicks in and you do the opposite. If not at home, and as injured as you are, you will likely try to get home. Quite likely at that moment you are wishing you had left the area or in a shelter.

If an attack comes, then what time of day? Mid morning perhaps the most effective. People have left their homes and potentially at work, and lets face it, probably have not done any prepping whatsoever.

It would be nice to think with certainty that we will be incinerated, but I think the reality will be different.

I think it's a good point about the travel ban. This potentially is the biggest clue of all that an attack is imminent and where you final decision to stay or go is imminent. I'm guessing too that there might be signs from the enemy of doing the same and for some that could mean evacuation of cities. Again, out there in internet land, I don't see much talk on the reality of what the lead up to attack might be.

For prepping should we invest in solid material, fire fighting equipment, antibiotics and other medicines, ventilation. A ton of soil, sandbags, bricks and mortar, metal poles/wooden sleepers etc. Should we be prepping now, so those materials are at hand in the days leading up to 'the decision we make'. Most will be snapped up by the population, remember the Covid toilet rolls! Or do we invest in just leaving to a retreat somewhere in the countryside. A second home, even if only a ruin in the wilderness that can be renovated over time.

That is of course if the travel ban doesn't apply to cities and people trying to leave. Martial Law may prevent this. But if we've prepped properly then surely that means we have already left before Martial Law kicks in?

[Kiwififer]

Not just me thinking that way then?

Nope.

I was thinking of how and where I could go to. Along the coast to East Lothian? I wouldn’t fancy being close to Torness nuclear power station in the long term.

Fife? Rosyth dockyard is where they build aircraft carriers and easily converted back to hosting the navy. Leuchars has an army regiment in it now but they kept the runways and it could easily go back to being an RAF station. Past Dundee you have Condor which is where 45 Royal Marines are. All of them are targets.

The U.K. is far too small to hide in. Unless you are one of the privileged few, hug your loved ones, stick your head between your knees and kiss your bahookie goodbye.

[itsybitsy]

Not just me thinking that way then?

Nope.

I was thinking of how and where I could go to. Along the coast to East Lothian? I wouldn’t fancy being close to Torness nuclear power station in the long term.

Fife? Rosyth dockyard is where they build aircraft carriers and easily converted back to hosting the navy. Leuchars has an army regiment in it now but they kept the runways and it could easily go back to being an RAF station. Past Dundee you have Condor which is where 45 Royal Marines are. All of them are targets.

The U.K. is far too small to hide in. Unless you are one of the privileged few, hug your loved ones, stick your head between your knees and kiss your bahookie goodbye.

If we're talking full-blown thermonuclear war then I am out too. I would much rather be vapourised in a millisecond than wander round the fiery inferno afterwards, slowly dying of radiation poisoning. No, siree. I live not far from the UK's largest port complex and not a million miles away from Fylingdales so I am in no doubt that we'd be on the strike list for whatever rogue state has pressed the button.

[GillyBee]

Being in South London means that gettting out would have to happen incredibly early. The main routes snarl in normal circumstances and are also very easy to block if travel is restricted. There are only so many ways over the M25....

If I am leaving THAT early, I need to consider where I am going. Is the location sustainable for a length of still normal time, can I work if I am there for a while before life goes bang, can I persuade my family along?

The only really viable early options for us are to take a holiday to rellies in either Wales or Australia. But airline flights out may get full pretty fast if things look as if they are going bad.

Work has a basement so is probably safer than home for a blast. Home is all but impossible to secure against a nuclear blast so my conclusion is to do the basics for blast damage & fire, first aid, food water, fuel, take cover as far as possible, enjoy that whisky and then just do what we can.

[Kiwififer]

That’s a very good point about relations.

Now all of my family live down under in Oz and NZ. I’ve lived there myself and have good friends in the South Island, it would be the natural place for ‘me’ to head to.

But all of my wife’s family live in and around Edinburgh. She wouldn’t want to leave her family and I wouldn’t want to leave without her so what would be the point?

We would all be FUBAR no matter what.