If we're talking full-blown thermonuclear war then I am out too. I would much rather be vapourised in a millisecond hen wander round the fiery inferno afterwards, slowly dying of radiation poisoning. No, siree. I live not far from the UK's largest port complex and not a million miles away from Fylingdales so I am in no doubt that we'd be on the strike list for whatever rogue state has pressed the button.
We may not know if it it's a full scale nuclear exchange. It might be limited to begin with and then everyone sees sense. In such a scenario this would be extreme panic time amongst the population. This would mean widespread emergency prepping or people packing up and getting out. The roads likely gridlocked. Martial Law in place with immediate effect. And you have time to make a decision, how much time is anyone's guess.
Just to clarify the points I made above. You may hope to be vapourised in a millisecond but unfortunately unless you are in the fireball range you will likely not be killed instantly. For a 100kt bomb (5 x Nagasaki bomb), landing on the surface at RAF Fylingdales the fireball radius would be 1km2, the likely 100% kill rate would extend to 3km2. Anywhere else would not die instantly. This can be viewed at Nukemaps
I doubt the weapon would be any larger than that and would guess a surface blast to take care of runways rather than an air burst. I guess airbursts would apply to Leeds, Sheffield, Hull, Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Newcastle and be in the region of 1mgt each. Manchester also would receive a 1mt+ bomb, Liverpool a large surface bomb with resulting fallout spreading to the North East. Sellafield likely also targeted with a ground burst smaller weapon. Obviously that's just me guessing but I think it's likely it would be something like that.
But the point being unless you are within 3km2 of RAF Fylingdales you are unlikely to be vapourised so easily. If you are are within 5km of Newcastle, Sunderland or Middlesbrough centre then there's almost 100% certainty, 5km-10km a good chance but not certain (not sure where the UK's largest port complex is - I thought Felixstowe? That's more south so I went for New/Sun/Mid).
It’s something I can’t really do much about therefore my prepping tends to be more sedate if that makes sense.
Do I have a 72h bug out bag? Yes.
Do I have a GOOD plan? Again yes.
But that’s more to just get out of Edinburgh for a few days rather than an ITEOTWAWKI situation.
It’s probably going to be unpopular on here but civil defence plans in the U.K. are a joke and individually, there’s not a lot I can do so I don’t worry that much about it.
As I stated the purpose of the thread was to seek opinions on some realities that might exist before, during and after any exchange.
Days leading up to impact
What signs will be enough to get the public panicking and therefore stocks diminishing?
I think it will be possibly if there is a nuclear explosion overseas. At that point everything changes, the media goes into overdrive, social media goes into overdrive. A retaliation then compounds that further. I think any events before that may cause some to react. For example British forces fighting abroad. That may well be the tipping point 'the biggest clue of all' I suppose, perhaps the one that we look back on and say 'I wish I'd have done something when...' The window between British forces involved and the first nuclear weapon used may not be a great deal of time, days or weeks possibly. But that's a hard one to guess.
Will it need a government call to 'get prepared'?
I think British forces fighting abroad will be enough for some of the public to start investing in preparations, but perhaps not enough to consider leaving the country. People will be worried, this will be headline news. I doubt there will be a government call to prepare, more likely a call not to panic (and panic buy). That will heighten if a nuke is used and would not be surprised if there is a government call then to get prepared. No idea how that would be done. Surely not 'Protect and Survive' but possibly something else.
However, I would not be surprised at all if there is zero information and it just happens.
At the point where you (not the government) decide there is an imminent risk what are your actions?:
I think if there is a government announcement to prepare then it will already be too late for the best chance of survival i.e moving to the southern hemisphere. The best chance to do that possibly when the forces start fighting abroad and travel abroad is still possible. If that isn't possible the next best chance is to get as rural as possible. North Scotland perhaps the best chance and hope that B&B's are available. Fallout would be carried north easterly so any land bursts likely to be on the west coast (Portsmouth, Plymouth, Cardiff, Swansea, Bristol, Milford Haven, Holyhead, Liverpool, Sellafield, Glasgow, Belfast plus Dublin), this would be enough to envelope the majority of the UK in radiation. Perhaps only the very north escaping the worst.
The minutes leading to impact
- Will there be any warning?
Possibly the warning message will appear on TV or on our phones. The days of the sirens have gone I think, unless they are reinstalled.
- If you are at work, have you already started prepping at work, or perhaps more to the point, at what point will your company start prepping?
I doubt many of our companies will prepare. We take the chance that the attack will be when we're at home, but I think it more likely it will be when we are at work. This would cause the most panic with many people ignoring fallout advice (if any) and trying to get home, likely by foot. I can't see many companies building shelters for employees and hoarding food and water, even if instructed to do so by the government.
- Which likely includes windows secured etc then will the gas supply be automatically shut off (likewise water and electric) or will we be expected to do this? Not sure. I think we are expected to turn off utilities from videos I have seen. If you live in a terrace you may need to turn off your neighbours too.
The explosion (and assuming you are in your shelter)
At what point do you leave the shelter to go and fight the fire (and assuming you have fire fighting equipment etc)?
I think it likely that the blast will be that devastating that we will be in shock. The sight of fire may be enough to kickstart a survival response, but the real warning signs is the smell of smoke. People and animals will be screaming, most will just want to hide from it. Not many will be thinking practically to fight the immediate threat of fire. The flames will probably kickstart us, but if we're smelling smoke it may well be too late (toxic fumes). I doubt we will be thinking of a secondary detonation at that point.
How close in proximity will these buildings need to be to cause a firestorm? (this could help the decision in leaving the country etc).
Not sure. I live in a typical suburban area of 1990's housing. Relatively close by to industrial centres, but possibly enough not to be incinerated in an instant. I think the 10 or so houses (and debris from fencing, trees, plants, sheds, cars etc) would be on fire within a few hundred yards. I can't find any information on whether that's enough to cause a local firestorm.
So are you helping to put out their fires? Also, they will be in desperate need of medical attention and possibly screaming for your help. Given that you have 10 minutes before any fall out falls, are you helping them?
I think it likely I could not ignore it and would be helping them. If not killed by the blast this would likely be my undoing. I don't really know, it will either kick in one way or the other. Possibly if I am out of my shelter fighting a fire then I would help, but if I'm not then possibly I'm not leaving my shelter to go and help.
Perhaps, once people have made their decisions to leave or stay, the best way for the local neighbourhood to survive is to help one another. Maybe some buildings are less damaged than others, maybe resources can be gathered and transferred. Of course this is something that should be discussed in advance. Help each other or every person for themselves? Perhaps the time for discussion is when it becomes apparent people are leaving.
The immediate aftermath (hours after)
Perhaps for the next 12 hours you are in extreme risk of attack from them. How are you prepping for this?
Nothing more to my defensive arsenal than an air pistol, some kitchen knives and likely plenty of blunt instruments from debris. Other than the pistol, those will be available to everyone. There will no doubt be some local people who have shotguns and rifles, maybe one in every 50,000 legally. Crossbows readily available and desperate people will do desperate things. Those weapons not only used for defence but for attack too.
The days after
Is this a prepping item that is available to stock up on via the internet (antibiotics)?
They are of course out there but if you are not in need then you will need to lie to get them. They will be like gold dust in the weeks that follow an attack. Not sure if I feel comfortable stocking up on them when they will be so desperately needed by medical professionals. But maybe if we want to survive we have to be selfish.
(Regards ventilation and air filtering) What is the truth here? With cost and availability in question what is realistic? And ultimately is it better to just spend the money on getting out of the country?
I have no idea what the minimum standard is. Obviously if you can afford it, the most expensive units will likely give the best results. However, I think the best use of expenditure is to get out of the northern hemisphere (if you can).
The weeks and months after.
(when it comes to doing your duty) So do you join them (the survivors), or leave them?
I think it likely that I will be joining them and hope that aid has arrived from overseas to help us rebuild or relocate us as refugees. At some stage you are not going to be invisible, no matter how stealthily well planned you have been. Escaping to a rural location will not be easy. Your food will be gone, you will be out of drinkable water and filtration coming to the end of it's life. Quite possibly too you will be craving human company and will be tempted by the possibilities of a better life back amongst people.
One thing that is not discussed (not seen it anywhere) is the two possibilities of
1. Aid from other countries. Would we see help arrive from perhaps our southern hemisphere? Would the northern hemisphere be seen as a lost cause and the only thing that can be done is to evacuate the country?
I think it likely that aid will come from the southern hemisphere. It might take months to co-ordinate such an effort, even if it is possible. The war would need to have ended. A strange as it might seem, the Commonwealth might pull together and prioritise us before our European neighbours.
2. A more likely scenario is that we would still be at war. Allies to our enemy perhaps still functioning. Would we now be at risk of invasion and being under the control of our enemies allies?
Unless humanity is shaking its head in disbelief and change their ways to become decent humans, I think there will be enough of an invading force to take control of the wasteland we have become and claiming these lands as part of their empire. We will have no army or forces to defend it and no allies. Whether we stay at war to try and retake it at some stage I doubt. I think the map would be withdrawn.
I think the best in terms of surviving nuclear war is to get to the Southern hemisphere. To make such a huge decision, you are going to need some sort of personal decision tree in place (or at least accurately weigh up the pros and cons) to decide on when to leave. This could be the most important prepping decision of all - when to leave.
Last edited by Shrews on Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In the event of nuclear war I would likely just resign myself to fate. I have no interest in attempting to survive the initial blast, the nuclear winter, the radiation sickness , the blindness and cancers which would follow or watching my loved ones have a painful and terrible end. I doubt that we would get much warning, most of us would not have a shelter to go to and the old shelters from the 80's when we had the TV adverts and the leaflets through the door about what to do in the eventuality of a nucelar explosion have, I think disappeared and either been decommissioned or destroyed. At least the one I was aware of nearest to me was. I live in an area where there are important resources, think aircraft building so would be a likely target. I will continue to prep for other things, but nuclear war is not one of them.
As a member of Her Royal Marines back in 1980 we trained for all this Nuclear cr@p. It was a big deal then,and there were bunkers everywhere it seemed. Our general attitude? Give us a beer mate,and sit tight cos here it comes!
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.
Robert Frost.
Covid 19: After that level of weirdness ,any situation is certainly possible.
jansman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:52 am
As a member of Her Royal Marines back in 1980 we trained for all this Nuclear cr@p. It was a big deal then,and there were bunkers everywhere it seemed. Our general attitude? Give us a beer mate,and sit tight cos here it comes!
There's a few near me, one within 2 miles, but about half the size of a football field. Can't imagine it opening its doors to the tens of thousands of village residents and what would be the point anyway?. Those places used as 'command posts' would be pretty useless even as that. Even the 1960s plans were laughable.
Face it we need to be truly committed survivalists to prep for MAD. I'm not. We can prep only for the most peripheral contact with nuclear war.
Graceful Degradation! Prepping's objective summed up in two words. Turning Disaster into Mild Inconvenience by the power of fore-thought
jennyjj01 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:32 am
Face it we need to be truly committed survivalists to prep for MAD. I'm not. We can prep only for the most peripheral contact with nuclear war.
I tend to agree with the above, and think it's virtually impossible to predict how a nuclear scenario will play out. I feel that there will be little or no notice because generally any Government would not want to cause panic (or so they would say). This would most likely also the case with any national emergency such as a CME or EMP. I tend to agree with the point made previously that there may be a buildup of tension which may lead to widespread nuclear war and give a warning. This is a bit selfish, but because of my age I'm not going to prepare for nuclear detonations over the UK specifically. With its high population density, and being an island, and in the face of possible martial law, where can one realistically go?
jennyjj01 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:32 am
Face it we need to be truly committed survivalists to prep for MAD. I'm not. We can prep only for the most peripheral contact with nuclear war.
I tend to agree with the above, and think it's virtually impossible to predict how a nuclear scenario will play out. I feel that there will be little or no notice because generally any Government would not want to cause panic (or so they would say). This would most likely also the case with any national emergency such as a CME or EMP. I tend to agree with the point made previously that there may be a buildup of tension which may lead to widespread nuclear war and give a warning. This is a bit selfish, but because of my age I'm not going to prepare for nuclear detonations over the UK specifically. With its high population density, and being an island, and in the face of possible martial law, where can one realistically go?
I agree with both these posts, that's my situation exactly. The only vaguely nuclear prep I've done is prepare a bit of extra strong insulation for a few of the downstairs windows - that's in case of a Chernobyl type event in northern France or Belgium, the whole area's peppered with nuclear power stations. I'm not saying they're the same design as Chernobyl, just that that's the order of magnitude I'm slightly prepared for. I.e, nothing at all
Kiwififer wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 7:31 am
There’s nowhere to run to.
There’s nowhere to hide.
The government would in all likelihood impose a travel ban so unless you have a yacht, you couldn’t get out of the country.
I can see Edinburgh Castle from my window, it’s the natural aiming point for any missile coming in and Edinburgh is one of the main targets up here.
So what would I do? I would crack open my best bottle of whisky, a limited edition cask strength Ben Romach and watch the missile come in. One quick flash and it would be over and done with as there’s nothing else I could do.
Not just me thinking that way then?
We live within the county that plays host to the government's spy agency. That will get a direct hit so no hope for us. As long as my family are with me at the time, that's the best I can hope for.
