Multiple Problems converging = one massive catastrophe

[highland-bushcraft]

Multiple Problem converging to create one massive catastrophe

I am great believer of the theory that it is not one single problem that is going to cause SHTF. For example weather, population, terrorism, pandemic ect ect.

What is going to cause SHTF is multiple problems converging to create one massive one. This idea of multiple converging catastrophes causing SHTF it highlighted in James Howard Kunstler book “The Long Emergence”

At the heart of our ability to cope with any emergency is oil. Take a look at the semi crisis that we face at the moment... shops empty …. Road Closed…. Fuel shortages.

We have the ability to cope with the challenges we face at the moment because of the abundance of oil we have trucks on the road plowing, gritting, delivering. Plant is digging out the deepest of snow. And army landrover and trucks are helping the police and ambulance service

Now imagine if you will in the coming weeks twice as much snow, -25 degree weather that would cripple the transport system. Shortages of food and fuel, people getting stuck over night and freezing to death in the arctic temperatures. Doctors and nurses relying on farmer tractors getting them to work again.

Now combine that with a terrorist attack on Grangemouth oil refinery or a bad accident like at the Lindsey oil refinery earlier this year.

That would certainly bring Scotland to it knees, if the bad weather continued and fuel supplies could not be brought from the south then you would see starvation and civil unrest in less than two weeks.

Now throw into the mix an out break of a particularly virulent strain of swine flu or gastroenteritis other wise known a winter vomiting and diarrhea. Or any other variable that that could tip the equation over the edge causing a SHTF eg Iran, Korea, Collapse of the euro zone the list goes on.

While I am preparing for a shutdown in thermohaline circulation I do not think that will cause SHTF on its own. I am preparing for multiple bad scenarios converging and exacerbating each other to create SHTF.

The scenario that I highlighted is one of many that could happen but we should prepare for converging catastrophes that could cause SHTF. One thing for sure Oil is at the heart of any response we make to any problem we face…. Just imagine for one moment that in the last 2 weeks we faced energy shortages as well as cold and snow.

That is a scary thought !!!

Moral of the story is not to prepare for just one scenario but to prepare and more importantly predict the convergence of multiple scenarios that combined could cause SHTF

[scoobie]

Very well put HB, and its something I've been mulling over in my mind recently too...

[hobo]

Spot on, IMO.

[Scablifter]

Expect the unexpected. A rather daft saying really. I mean, if it is unexpected, how can you expect it? moreover, if you have expected it,,,, then ,, it wasn't unexpected,, or was it? mmmm.
Whatever the scenario, I have ordered more beans, and the order has been accepted,, as expected,,and they are being delivered,,and after being inspected,, they will be accepted, as expected,,,,,,, I'll get my coat.

[AAAA]

Have to agree, one of reasons I got in to prepping in the first place was because of the fuel shortages we had in early 2000’s due to the protesters blocking refineries. I remember watching police in full PSU gear arriving at Tescos / Asdas and having to break up people fighting. Normal decent people fighting for last tine of beans.

I’m of the opinion that the most likely course of death in most TSHF situations is going to be other people panicking. Any issue is going to be meet with an immediate shortage of food / water / fuel, and a likely break down of civil order. Although on that last point I am slightly impressed in the way people have reacted to the snow.

[Carrot Cruncher]

I agree it will be a combination of things that will cause a major breakdown. The more I look at the things wrong in the world the more I am convinced that I will see a major breakdown in my lifetime. Whether that is a gradual collapse (some think that is already happening) or a sudden collapse, who knows, but I am conviced things cant carry on the way they are going

Looking on the bright side though (i'm an optimistic pessimist ) the major preps we make would help to a certain extent in most types of situations we are likely to face. We all no doubt tweak our preps towards what we perceive to be our biggest or most likely threat, but the basics of shelter, warmth, food, and water will still be a constant requirement no matter what the threat is/are.

CC

[scotspreps]

I agree, though some combinations of circumstances can either help or hinder. For example in Glasgow this past couple of weeks, when the heavy snow hit the major roads - and minor roads leading to them - were jammed. As the weather clamped in there were shortages in the shops. Vehicles with almost empty tanks after the many hours of extended journey home could not refuel because supplies weren't getting through to the petrol stations. There were fewer traffic accidents but more incidences of pedestrian injury due to falls, and ambulances were delayed or found it impossible to get to them because of the snow and roads blocked by stuck and/or abandoned cars.

If terrorists had detonated a dirty bomb or released a biological agent in the centre, or even an ordinary bomb or two on the underground, on the Monday it would have caused a nightmare. Traffic was at a virtual standstill. Escaping from the area would have to have been on foot and abandoned vehicles would have made the problem worse. Getting emergency vehicles, personnel and equipment to the site would have taken hours. Many contaminated people would have fled the area before help and control arrived. If the terrorists had planned their attack for one of the following days, it would have had a tiny effect because the city was almost deserted. Fortunately, terrorist incidents tend to be planned for significant anniversaries or particular events, very few seem to be prepared to take advantage of circumstances for maximum effect at short notice.

But I think the seeds are in place for a crop of events that could grow into to something major. Changes in the weather; an increase in terrorist activity; expected power shortages; financial breakdowns; rising population; decreasing standards of personal independence and responsibility; increased national dependence on external resources: give it a few years, and if in a period of bad weather and financial or industrial instability or pandemic, terrorists – or an accident – took down some of the pylons supporting main power cables that run over major roads at a couple of prime junction points e.g. in the borders of Scotland, and hit other areas with additional incidents, it could cause a temporary but serious, spiralling and prolonged emergency that could very quickly get out of hand.

Last year there was a night-time fire at a flat quite local to us, caused we are told by them using a faulty heater to supplement their central heating, and both the fire service and ambulances were seriously delayed by weather and road conditions. With 4" of snow on the ground and temperature well below zero, People forced out into the street were dressed only in nightwear, some with a coat over the top, some with only slippers and in a couple of cases bare feet. Most had no keys for their cars, no money, no clothes or any other resources. We opened one of our garages (in a crescent of the same, not next to the house, and not used for the car because the Pajero won’t fit) threw down some carpet remnants on the floor, got a gas heater going, hustled people inside and provided car blankets to those most in need and then hot drinks after we had got organised. I strung a hammock from a couple of the roof beams for a mother to put her 2 small kids into. It wasn’t much but it got them into shelter and some warmth without them going far from their homes. Other local residents opened their cars and got evacuees into those with the heater running. A small bunch of yobs that gathered to jeer and throw things at the emergency services were quickly cleared off, not by the police but by locals. So people do sometimes help one another in emergencies, but the preparedness of those most affected was shockingly minimal, and I’m not convinced that for most it would be better if it happened again. Eventually the police and one of our neighbours who is with the Salvation Army began to get accommodation and other things sorted for those who couldn’t return to their homes but if the event had been bigger and more widely dispersed they might have had no help. And even in a localised event like that it took only a bit of cold weather to make a bad situation even worse.

[diamond lil]

terrorists – or an accident – took down some of the pylons supporting main power cables that run over major roads at a couple of prime junction points e.g. in the borders of Scotland,
***************
GULP ! I dont suppose you'd like to say where exactly ? lol ! But the rest of your post just emphasises the need to get out of cities - wherever possible, make it the number one priority of your long term planning.

[scotspreps]

The thing that it impressed most on me was the SPEED with which the gridlock formed. When I drove to work in the morning it was snowing but traffic was flowing normally - a little more slowly than usual but normal for that level of visibility. By the time that the firm I worked for decided to send people home it was already too late. Not only were the motorways and trunk roads almost at a standstill but traffic throughout the city was too, because of lines of traffic queued waiting to get onto the motorways even though they were going nowhere. Snow that had been ploughed reduced 3 lanes to 2. Cars abandoned at the side of the road turned that into 1 lane. Even if you didn't want to take the slip onto the motorway you couldn't get past. And people in the queues were showing no sense. At a roundabout where the traffic had been static for 2 hours there was a petrol station with a big parking area and it was empty, but instead of getting off the road into the parking area and so freeing up the roundabout, or simply turning around and going somewhere else, people just sat blocking the road, or worse, locked their cars and walked to the petrol station to buy coffee and then came back to sit in their cars. I was lucky in some ways, i couldn't avoid some of the tailbacks but with the Pajero once I got around them by using backroads and out into the country I could take routes and get around stuck vehicles and make some progress, but even then when I got near home - a town not a city - I met the same problems of tailbacks to the big roads on the outskirts and then stuck lorries on the slopes (not steep enough to call hills) towards the centre. the paj took me down some unconventional routes into and through a nature reserve and down a footpath back to a local road near home, but een then, with detours and stopping to help a couple of people in remoter areas it took me 71/2 hours to do what would normally take less than an hour.

[Carrot Cruncher]

i couldn't avoid some of the tailbacks but with the Pajero once I got around them by using backroads and out into the country I could take routes and get around stuck vehicles and make some progress

Glad to hear you got home ok. Have you any specific winter modifications on your Pajero or is it just generally good in those conditions ?

CC