2020 Potential Economic Collapse

[diamond lil]

Gulp. Good job I haven't any to keep in there then. Phew.

[Arwen Thebard]

Gulp. Good job I haven't any to keep in there then. Phew.

They will probably charge you for that as well Lil.

[diamond lil]

[peejay]

US GDP previously expected to drop 13% in Q2 now revised to 40% drop. That has to have a knock on effect...

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-econ ... ?r=US&IR=T

[omega man]

this too, not totally unexpected but still
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52619118


OM

[Arwen Thebard]

(This Telegraph article has been edited by me for brevity.)

Worst Looks Yet to Come for Sinking British Pound.
Money markets pointing to U.K. interest rates turning negative.

As the pound extends the deepest slump among developed-world currencies, a host of market indicators are converging to suggest the worst is yet to come.

Sterling slid more than 3% in the past month, with losses accelerating this week as data showed the U.K. economy may be headed for the deepest recession in three centuries amid the coronavirus crisis. Technical charts and option pricing point to more pain for the currency as money-market bets rise that the Bank of England will cut interest rates below zero next year to revive growth.

Governor Andrew Bailey said Wednesday it’s “pretty clear” investors expect more quantitative easing from the BOE, and that monetary loosening is helping the government fund the cost of economic aid amid the pandemic. Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent even hinted at the possibility of negative rates, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pushed back against the notion.

The British currency dropped as much as 0.4% Thursday to $1.2181, the lowest level since April 7. Its 3.3% loss in the past one month is the biggest among advanced economies.

U.K. money markets are now pricing in negative rates for early 2021, in a similar move to U.S. fed fund futures -- also pointing to sub-zero rates around the same time. Such rate expectations may weigh harder on sterling’s prospects, with recent comments from policy makers suggesting the BOE could move faster than the Fed to ease policy.

The brewing pessimism offers little surprise to option traders. Risk reversals, a barometer of market positioning and sentiment, have been steadily trading at levels indicating a deeply bearish outlook for the U.K. currency. There are also lingering signs that Brexit trade risks aren’t priced in yet, leaving the pound facing the strongest set of headwinds among its peers.
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My comment;
So it looks like there will be some very hard times ahead for the UK, with the already discussed potential for tax hikes on those still [lucky enough?] to be working and sweeping cuts imposed across the state benefit and pension sectors, now we have the added threat of negative interest rates [taxation] on anyone with savings. I think that qualifies as a looming SHTF situation.Three months ago this would have been thought impossible in the UK, now look at what we are considering.

[grenfell]

this too, not totally unexpected but still
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52619118


OM

Dropped below a quid at our morrisons. I also heard this mentioned on local radio. The presenter said " petrol at 99.9p , pound to a penny it'll be back to £1.30 by the end of the year , time to get the cans filled up". The cynic in me thinks he is probably right and i'd already decided to fill up my cans for the power tools but i did wonder how many others will do the same. My wife purchased a couple of jerry cans from an online seller and they were his last stock although that may be just one seller rather than something more widespread , can't say i've checked. If a lot of people do fill up cans i wondered about potential hazards and also how much will end up going off and being wasted?
On the subject of gone off petrol although a little off topic my brother in law was having problems with his petrol mower. It wouldn't start and a friend suggested it might be due to old petrol. I helped him drain it , filled with fresh petrol and it was as right as rain. "What shall i do with the old petrol " he asked . There was a gallon of it so i had it. From the time i first watched Ice Cold in Alex many years ago i'd always wanted to try the Benghazi cooker they used in the film but i suppose i'd always been a bit too tight to buy petrol just to burn it in a tin. So i tried it with the gone off stuff and can happily report it worked a treat.

[diamond lil]

How did you do that cooker? My dad was always talking about using them in the desert but I didnt understand.

[grenfell]

It really is a very simple thing , a tin , some sand and petrol is basically it. Being the first time i'd actually tried it i was a little nervous to begin with so just made one with a baked bean sized tin , three quarters filled with sand ,i used kiln dried paving sand , and poured in what was probably a large eggcup full of petrol. I was a bit nervous that it might ignite in one big whoosh so used a long taper but it lit as smoothly as a kitchen stove would light except that the flame is yellow. It was quite clear to see how the flames were originating from the top of the tin rather than the surface of the sand in the same way as flames dance above a piece of burning wood. I was surprised at the time it burnt for. I didn't actually time it but it burnt for quite a time. I need to time it and put a kettle on it next time.

[diamond lil]

That's great, ta ! Need to try this now