Prepping and climate change

[Arzosah]

Thats an amazing website, completely stopped me in my tracks. I'd never heard of it before. His post about Extinction Rebellion makes exactly the point that you two guys are making (eventually, at the end - man, he writes long posts!). https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2019 ... ing-wrong/

This is the final paragraph: "And so, while I salute those who have taken to the streets this month (my son is among them and I am proud that he is standing up for what he believes in) I would also caution them that the changes that are coming are not the ones they want; still less the ones the leaders of their movement are pretending they can have. Our current civilisation can be compared to the last moments of the Titanic – holed below the waterline and destined to sink into a watery grave. Most of those who are protesting are merely akin to the frightened passengers begging a Captain and crew to respond to a situation that they have already lost control of. The sensible few among the protestors will look to those who are assembling the lifeboats. But the majority – whether they believe the emergency is real or not – will soon meet their tragic end. And protesting icebergs and reckless Captains will do nothing to save them – or us – now!"

I've heard plenty of people say "its too late" - but to have it spelled out why its too late, and what the consequences are, in calm, non-crazy language, astonishing.

[Deeps]

Thats an amazing website, completely stopped me in my tracks. I'd never heard of it before. His post about Extinction Rebellion makes exactly the point that you two guys are making (eventually, at the end - man, he writes long posts!). https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2019 ... ing-wrong/

This is the final paragraph: "And so, while I salute those who have taken to the streets this month (my son is among them and I am proud that he is standing up for what he believes in) I would also caution them that the changes that are coming are not the ones they want; still less the ones the leaders of their movement are pretending they can have. Our current civilisation can be compared to the last moments of the Titanic – holed below the waterline and destined to sink into a watery grave. Most of those who are protesting are merely akin to the frightened passengers begging a Captain and crew to respond to a situation that they have already lost control of. The sensible few among the protestors will look to those who are assembling the lifeboats. But the majority – whether they believe the emergency is real or not – will soon meet their tragic end. And protesting icebergs and reckless Captains will do nothing to save them – or us – now!"

I've heard plenty of people say "its too late" - but to have it spelled out why its too late, and what the consequences are, in calm, non-crazy language, astonishing.

While far from an expert, I doubt its too late although the longer we leave it the harder it will be to fix. We're a very inventive race, that's the good part, the bad part is we're a selfish and egotistic race too. We just have to hope we can be less selfish, whether that comes from altruism or coercion from our leaders is the $64,000 dollar question. My money is on coercion rather than altruism, if it actually happens.

[Arwen Thebard]

What do we mean by "its (already) too late?" What do these words mean to each of us? How will climate change effect you personally? How is it going to affect those around you?

For the majority of people I know it is going to force huge changes to their lifestyles at the very least and it will seem to them like the "end of the world" has arrived.

People living in or near larger towns and cities will likely be more effected by the effects of CC and to them it will probably seem like Armageddon.

On an personal basis the effects of CC are already influencing the way we prep, the quantity of rain water we store and the areas we are planning to live being two, the future is going to have even greater impact IMO.

If you read the comment of "its (already) too late?" on a wider, global scale, the human race is now certainly heading into dangerous territory and individuals and groups need to be genuinely reacting now, not just paying it lip service. How many people in California or Australia wish they had planned further ahead?

[Arzosah]

That's a good pickup, guys. To me, "its too late" means its too late for voluntary, piecemeal action to get the results we need (emissions/ CO2 levels going down and down and down ...). The big emitters, and countries that have long had a Western type lifestyle, will probably see things crumble, as it doesn't seem likely that governments will take strong action either. I haven't thought in any detail about exactly how it might play out, because there are a million feedback loops that might have much more significance than I know, and they'd make a huge difference to the outcome. But thinking of, say, The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver, (SPOILERS AHEAD!!!)
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the state collapses temporarily, and reconfigures in new ways. I think it might be worse than that, especially in areas that are already marginal in terms of current climate, which might simply be abandoned. But I don't know. Failed states still have people getting on with their lives and raising their children etc, after all, though you can't do that if the sea submerges you or washes away your land.

We used to hear the term "tipping point" a lot, where the changes to the climate were so strong that they took on a life of their own - we don't hear about that so much any more, not in what I read anyway. I wonder if its because in the minds of people who write those articles, the tipping point has been reached? Its not 10/12 years away, it's here? Again, I don't know, I'm wondering aloud, but I do have my suspicions.

[diamond lil]

One thing that niggles at me - although I know nobody can answer it. Think of the industrial revolution, think of the amount of coal burned in Victorian times. Unbelievable amounts of coal in long-gone factories and ironworks and foundries and all the houses too, all burned coal. So why did this not happen then? Or did it and nobody knows? Taking that on a bit - why isn't it better now than it was then?

[Arzosah]

That's a good question, and there are tentative answers out there actually, Lil. I thought carbon dioxide lasted maybe 60 years in the atmosphere, something like that. Imagine my surprise when I read its a lot longer than that, mostly:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... remain-air
" Between 65% and 80% of CO2 released into the air dissolves into the ocean over a period of 20–200 years. The rest is removed by slower processes that take up to several hundreds of thousands of years, including chemical weathering and rock formation."
So, the industrial revolution really got going *hard* after the Napoleonic Wars, roughly - about 200 years ago, in fact. Which fits in, I'm sorry to say.

Numbers were a lot smaller in those days, of course - the population of Britain, the most industrialised country in the world, was 27 million in 1851 (thats more than I thought it would be, actually). The less people, the less damage ...

I'm not sure what you mean when you say "why isn't it better now than it was then?" I'd expect it to be worse now than then - sort of like compound interest with money, we get compounding with years of pollution.

[diamond lil]

I just thought that its been years since we used a lot of coal and had a lot of industry, so that there has been a bit of time for levels to fall. Which doesn't seem to be the case really.. I know the population was lower but the factories, mills, ship yards, foundries, etc were absolutely everywhere so I think pollution levels must have been incredible.
Anyway it's just one of the odd things that passed through my mind.

[Arzosah]

There's a graph on this page, after the first couple of paragraphs that shows yearly fossil fuel use since 1800.
https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
We have a lot worse to come

[Catweazle]

I suspect that climate change limiting behaviour (burning less fossil fuels, consuming less) will be forced upon us by taxation changes. This suits the government well. It increases tax revenue to help keep control of an unhappy population and allows government to act against climate change, all without pesky laws to stop the privileged doing exactly what they want to.

For those with an eye to the future there are useful devices that can be bought very cheaply right now. Sturdy bicycles with baskets are a good example for the able-bodied.

An example for those of a more technical persuasion, I've been playing with permanent magnet 3-phase servo motors recently. I bought a used job lot at a tiny fraction of the new price. These are the simplest low maintenance motor/generators, you can take the output and rectify it to charge batteries, or connect to heaters, or even simply wire the driven one to a slave one directly to transfer motive power from a windmill to a water pump for example, or via a flexible cable to a DIY rotavator, or a lathe, or saw etc..

I try to think outside the box, I imagine what would be really difficult to manufacture but can be bought cheaply at present.

[jansman]

Here is another link from that long- winded journo.Take the time to read it though.Given Bozo's announcement that we will all be whizzing around in electric cars pretty soon...

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020 ... ve-future/