Lockdown?

[omega man]

I think the issue is that Covid -19 is 'novel' and only 3 mths into it's (first) wave, plus It's so very infectious too.
Lots of people with C19 suffer from pneumonia which is not a totally regular problem with influenza A&B that we all already have a degree of genetic immunity to.

The R0 and CFR of this can change depending on our response. For it to go away we need an R0 below 1

The opinion of several respected virologists is that around 60% of the world will get it. which we need to in order to develop natural immunity.
The Lancet reports of all cases;

80% will have the sniffles, no medical intervention
15% Serious illness, medical care, medication
5% Critical - mechanical ventilation.

Don't forget both influenza's, HIV, Cancer, oh and car crashes ain't on hold while we deal with this.

OM

[grenfell]

Going back to the lockdown thing any predictions on where they may occur ? Looking at the events in Lombardy it's a quite densly populated part of italy so would be a parallel for london i would think. Keeping everyone inside the M25 .
The nearest big city to me is Birmingham which according to the news currently has two cases. On social media some wag said the whole of birmingham should be sealed off , not necessarily because of the virus just because it is full of brummies

[omega man]

Going back to the lockdown thing any predictions on where they may occur ? Looking at the events in Lombardy it's a quite densly populated part of italy so would be a parallel for london i would think. Keeping everyone inside the M25 .
The nearest big city to me is Birmingham which according to the news currently has two cases. On social media some wag said the whole of birmingham should be sealed off , not necessarily because of the virus just because it is full of brummies

I was wondering the same thing Grenfell, agreed, probably London to boom first... ? or will it be where clusters first had a foothold?
Good call to compare with Italy since there population is very similar, though demographic somewhat different.

Either way we'll see many more cases over the coming week following todays declaration to test 10k daily.

OM

[Arwen Thebard]

Apparently internet speeds in the Lombardy region have slowed down considerably. That's not something I had considered. Oh well, back to dial up

[peejay]

The Lancet reports of all cases;

80% will have the sniffles, no medical intervention
15% Serious illness, medical care, medication
5% Critical - mechanical ventilation.

OM

This is an interesting point actually, even if it was "only" 1-2% mortality rate, I'm pretty certain it's not a fun ride for the most affected 20%!

This makes some interesting watching too...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQ ... 19cKrvlgcM

[HedgeHopper]

The 80% classed as mild includes cases up to the level of needing an oxygen supply to survive, its not a case of the sniffles for most as implied here.
Look at Italy and see what is ahead for us very soon, our health system is not going to cope, Italy's health services are falling apart and we have less capacity per capita in the UK.
Translation = we are ****



Please don't just listen to the crap on the telly.

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topic ... s-covid-19

[omega man]

Looking at Italy just shows us they dropped the ball on screening, their mild cases have been walking around undetected. Making the numbers look worse because they're now seeing the worse cases mount up. The model stays true. We shouldn't sensationalise.

OM

[Arwen Thebard]

Looking at Italy just shows us they dropped the ball on screening, their mild cases have been walking around undetected. Making the numbers look worse because they're now seeing the worse cases mount up. The model stays true. We shouldn't sensationalise.

OM

Looks to me like Italy have taken strong, decisive actions?. Didn't the WHO praise their quick response?

[grenfell]

Going back to the lockdown thing any predictions on where they may occur ? Looking at the events in Lombardy it's a quite densly populated part of italy so would be a parallel for london i would think.

I was wondering the same thing Grenfell, agreed, probably London to boom first... ?

OM

Assuming london does get locked down i wonder how that will impact on the running of the government? Does parliament reconvene outside london or stay there and presumably with a least one confirmed case and another self isolating it wouldn't be the whole of the house. And what about the lords? Most of them are getting on a bit and are in the "vunerable" group. Mind having worked at the palace of westminster during the summer recess it's clear the country should be able to continue without a sitting parliament but just wondering...

[diamond lil]

Not sure if the Lords actually do anything at all anyway..