Will the NHS cope

[Vitamin c]

With the new variant well and truly on it's way and discussions in different threads were many have already felt the NHS has been failing do you think the NHS will cope with what is coming and if not what do you think this will look like.

[pseudonym]

The new variant has milder symptoms so the amount of people needing to be admitted and on oxygen/ventilators should be less.

[korolev]

The new variant has milder symptoms so the amount of people needing to be admitted and on oxygen/ventilators should be less.

But on the other hand it's *much* more transmissible so even if there's a lower percentage of people needing hospitalisation/ventilation, there is a possibility of hospitals being overwhelmed if we let it run unchecked through the population. If they are, then people who would otherwise have survived will die.

[Appin]

Start by defining what you mean by fail or cope.

The NHS "fails" all the time by not doing as well as it should. On the other hand to most people fail means stop working. that will not happen.

The NHS diverts resources on the basis of what is needed.If Omicron stresses the system non urgent elective surgery stops first, then outpatient work is cut back. The GPs have already said to deliver the vaccine boosters they need to drop some work such as routine health checks. If things get worse you cut back on more urgent work. Last to go is cancer work and cardiac surgery but those are usually in specialist areas anyway so less likely to be affected at all.

I am retired from the NHS and know for certain that my old hospital did not stop cancer surgery at ANY point during previous waves. ITU space got dodgy but work rounds were found.

So will the NHS fail NO. it will almost certainly "cope". Will it have to take emergency measures to cope almost certainly yes. Will some people be inconvenienced by those measures yes, and doubtless will appear on TV to complain. Seriously if you have a very painful arthitis of hip yes you want it fixed but do you want to risk being in hospital with that much Covid around? By the way work has been done about patients catching covid during an admission. the short version is they usually catch it from other patients not staff.

The NHS staff will work to cover and will get no support or reward for their extra efforts beyond a perfunctory "Thank you now resume normal".

You cannot begin to imagine the resentment that has built up. Failure to plan , failure to anticipate, failure to act in a timely manner. Failure to support staff taken to the absolute limit with blank denial of reality by managers and ministers. The frontline staff shoulder the burden whilst managers and ministers congratulate themselves on good planning and job well done. Do any of them under go proper scrutiny or lose their jobs for incompetence?

More specifically it does seem that double or triple vax may well reduce the need for admission or ITU. Keep in mind the antibody response to a vaccine is not monoclonal but polyclonal so the virus is attacked by multiple different antibodies. Likewise while previous aplha or delta infection does not give complete protection these previous infections will have produced a wider range of antibodies than a vaccine so again protection of some degree is very likely.

The reports from South Africa re interesting. They say many of their Covid inpatients are not on oxygen. That is odd as need for oxygen is a key reason to admit ( or not if not needed). Milder can still be a problem as sheer volume can be the issue.

Sadly many of the most vulnerable died in previous waves. Hopefully Nursing Homes will be better protected and better prepared this time round.

Cope Yes but it will not be pretty and to date more people have died from Covid than died from bombing in WW2. Covid is the biggest thing to hit this country since WW2 and yet some people still think it should not inconvenience them.

Sorry for the ranting but I have seen what this has done to my friends and former colleagues. They won't quit now but the potential exodus once things have settled is scary.

Appin

[diamond lil]

Agree lots will leave and look for less stressful jobs as soon as this winter is over - if not before.
And I wonder why they're in ICU in sSouth Africa if they don't need oxygen...

[jansman]

Start by defining what you mean by fail or cope.

The NHS "fails" all the time by not doing as well as it should. On the other hand to most people fail means stop working. that will not happen.

The NHS diverts resources on the basis of what is needed.If Omicron stresses the system non urgent elective surgery stops first, then outpatient work is cut back. The GPs have already said to deliver the vaccine boosters they need to drop some work such as routine health checks. If things get worse you cut back on more urgent work. Last to go is cancer work and cardiac surgery but those are usually in specialist areas anyway so less likely to be affected at all.

I am retired from the NHS and know for certain that my old hospital did not stop cancer surgery at ANY point during previous waves. ITU space got dodgy but work rounds were found.

So will the NHS fail NO. it will almost certainly "cope". Will it have to take emergency measures to cope almost certainly yes. Will some people be inconvenienced by those measures yes, and doubtless will appear on TV to complain. Seriously if you have a very painful arthitis of hip yes you want it fixed but do you want to risk being in hospital with that much Covid around? By the way work has been done about patients catching covid during an admission. the short version is they usually catch it from other patients not staff.

The NHS staff will work to cover and will get no support or reward for their extra efforts beyond a perfunctory "Thank you now resume normal".

You cannot begin to imagine the resentment that has built up. Failure to plan , failure to anticipate, failure to act in a timely manner. Failure to support staff taken to the absolute limit with blank denial of reality by managers and ministers. The frontline staff shoulder the burden whilst managers and ministers congratulate themselves on good planning and job well done. Do any of them under go proper scrutiny or lose their jobs for incompetence?

More specifically it does seem that double or triple vax may well reduce the need for admission or ITU. Keep in mind the antibody response to a vaccine is not monoclonal but polyclonal so the virus is attacked by multiple different antibodies. Likewise while previous aplha or delta infection does not give complete protection these previous infections will have produced a wider range of antibodies than a vaccine so again protection of some degree is very likely.

The reports from South Africa re interesting. They say many of their Covid inpatients are not on oxygen. That is odd as need for oxygen is a key reason to admit ( or not if not needed). Milder can still be a problem as sheer volume can be the issue.

Sadly many of the most vulnerable died in previous waves. Hopefully Nursing Homes will be better protected and better prepared this time round.

Cope Yes but it will not be pretty and to date more people have died from Covid than died from bombing in WW2. Covid is the biggest thing to hit this country since WW2 and yet some people still think it should not inconvenience them.

Sorry for the ranting but I have seen what this has done to my friends and former colleagues. They won't quit now but the potential exodus once things have settled is scary.

Appin

That is an excellent’insider’ view of the situation.Thank you. I will second the issue around cancer care.My wife had cancer treatment 12 weeks before Covid hit. Follow up treatment still carried on regardless.The difference was that I was not able to accompany her within the hospital. A small inconvenience.

I am sure people will complain,but it is my experience that when you NEED urgent help from the NHS ,it is there for you. The NHS is still an institution to be proud of.

[ForgeCorvus]

I am sure people will complain,but it is my experience that when you NEED urgent help from the NHS ,it is there for you. The NHS is still an institution to be proud of.

And free at the point of use..... Unlike some places.


It will bend rather then break, but I do worry that staff that burn out and have to leave can't be replaced. You can't recruit just anyone as its more of a vocation then a job, so they need to have the will to do it...... And those looking to join have to be up to standard.



Nerd fact: The three largest employers in the world are, China's Peoples Liberation Army, Indian Railways and the British NHS....... Suck on that Bookface

[jansman]

I am sure people will complain,but it is my experience that when you NEED urgent help from the NHS ,it is there for you. The NHS is still an institution to be proud of.

And free at the point of use..... Unlike some places.


It will bend rather then break, but I do worry that staff that burn out and have to leave can't be replaced. You can't recruit just anyone as its more of a vocation then a job, so they need to have the will to do it...... And those looking to join have to be up to standard.



Nerd fact: The three largest employers in the world are, China's Peoples Liberation Army, Indian Railways and the British NHS....... Suck on that Bookface

Now that’s a statistic!

[Arzosah]

Sorry for the ranting but I have seen what this has done to my friends and former colleagues. They won't quit now but the potential exodus once things have settled is scary.

Appin

Just had quite a long rant myself that I decided to delete because it went Way Political Your ranting was very lucid and very well argued, I'm glad you wrote it. I'm so sorry you and your NHS colleagues have experienced these things.

[GillyBee]

We were in our local A&E 2 weeks ago for the night after t'other half smashed his face up. The staff were brilliant but were having to play shuffle the beds to find a cubicle to allow him to lie down as he was phasing in and out of consciousness. There were other patients in the corridor on trolleys due to lack of cubicles and an ambulance queue as well.
Then add in the overheard battles to find beds on the wards for the ones needing admission and the hunts for basics like extra blankets.
We ware advised that there were two known covid patients in at the time. I hate to think how hard it will be when the 2 become 20 - or more.