Fertilizers

Food, Nutrition and Agriculture
Moorland Prepper
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:43 am
Location: On the edge of the Pennines

Fertilizers

Post by Moorland Prepper »

Just spent a few hours with a farmer friend. Last year fertilizer cost him £200 a ton, it's now £1,100 when he can get it. Some farmers are not growing crops due to the uncertainty over fertilizer costs and the price they will receive for their produce.

There are articles starting to appear in the US farming press of large scale food shortages to come:

https://vaccineimpact.com/2022/u-s-farm ... ts-coming/

The farmer says that we are still eating last year's harvest and next year will be something quite different. I'm checking my inventory and making sure that we have a year's supply of basics.
jennyjj01
Posts: 3430
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:09 pm

Re: Fertilizers

Post by jennyjj01 »

Moorland Prepper wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:53 pm Just spent a few hours with a farmer friend. Last year fertilizer cost him £200 a ton, it's now £1,100 when he can get it. Some farmers are not growing crops due to the uncertainty over fertilizer costs and the price they will receive for their produce.

There are articles starting to appear in the US farming press of large scale food shortages to come:

https://vaccineimpact.com/2022/u-s-farm ... ts-coming/

The farmer says that we are still eating last year's harvest and next year will be something quite different. I'm checking my inventory and making sure that we have a year's supply of basics.
This is so ominouse. We don't need a crystal ball to see how bad this can get. Food prices are up , but not yet quintupled.

Let's think how this might pan out.....

There's impact on imports and impact on home grown products.

For imports, loss of choice, massive inflation on imported fruits and veg? No more avocados, Kiwi Fruit, Citrus fruits? A return to seasonality?

For domestic produce?
Some farmers leaving the industry? Leaving farms fallow? Prices go up.... Maybe radical shortages of staples
Farmers scrimp on fertilizer? degraded yields and multi year reduction in quality and quantity? Multi year pain? Potential crop failures?
Farmers trying to upgrade to premium produce? Price of staples like spuds and wheat go up first and disproportionately?
Government tries to suppress prices with subsidy? Taxes and other prices go up first?
Industrial action in agriculture? civil unrest?

Regardless of the increase in prices so far, there's plenty of room for bigger, faster, outrageous increases.

Last chance saloon for clearing the shelves of Idaho Mash, Rice, Pasta?
Graceful Degradation! Prepping's objective summed up in two words. Turning Disaster into Mild Inconvenience by the power of fore-thought

Not Feeling Optimistic. Let me be wrong
Moorland Prepper
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:43 am
Location: On the edge of the Pennines

Re: Fertilizers

Post by Moorland Prepper »

Hi jennyjj01

The farmer is a cattle farmer who also has a very sucessful farm shop attached to his farm. He see the whole of the food industry, from the farm right through to retailing food.

He was just talking generally of how things were and what he saw coming for the next year or so. I've known him for forty years and he's not prone to exaggeration.

Food production is a lengthy process and future shortages are already 'baked in the cake' and cannot easily be changed. It's not just fertilizers - he can't get red diesel and has to buy white diesel which is far more expenses. If farm machinery breaks down it can take weeks to get parts. This explains the long cycles in food production:

https://www.nutritruth.org/single-post/ ... rest-biden

He explained that much of the 'fresh' food that we eat is anything but fresh, just carefully stored, for example many of the fresh eggs that we eat can be (and usually are) up to 60 days old:

https://bridenfarm.com/blog/you-choose- ... -days-old/

Much longer for other foods which are probably made with ingrediants that pre-date the Ukraine war.

He certainly made me think about checking and adding to my preps and I would urge anyone reading this to do the same.