I've read some posts about bugging out, waiting until lots of people have died, then returning to have more resources to share.
Is this realistic?
Or would the windows all be broken, the cars burned and anything useful vandalised/destroyed?
What would there be to come back to?
What would there be to come back to?
SHTF around 2017.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
Depends on how quickly things fall apart - and where you are.
The worst case scenario would be if you were in a major city and there was a very sudden breakdown of food supplies - ie the huge logistics it takes to constantly re-supply all the supermarkets stops working.
If it was a localized incident then it wouldn't be too bad - the government would send in fleets of army trucks with supplies or something like that - however if it affected everywhere then the cities would become very bad places. Within a few days there would be riots / looting and within a few weeks millions of people would be starving to death in close proximity to each other. It would be terrible - vast numbers of people in the last stages of desperation. I don't know exactly how it would play out but I suspect most people in a big city would die.
Afterwards there wouldn't be anything in terms of food left in the cities - and probably not much of anything. Uncontrolled firestorms would probably turn cities into smoldering ruins as effectively as a nuclear strike.
In rural locations it wouldn't be nearly so bad. The lower population density would mean people could survive a lot longer on their supplies and locally farmed food. However there would be a massive influx of people smart enough to escape the cities - which might overwhelm any resources a small community had.
All of that is a worst case scenario - assuming a very sudden breakdown of food supplies. Far more likely (I think) would be a slower decline, over months or years - giving time for a more controlled readjustment. There are plenty of historical examples of this type of decline - but no recent examples of the sudden kind.
The only scenario I can imagine where there would be lots of resources left in the aftermath would be a pandemic disease that wipes out almost all the population (and somehow not you). It would have to be almost all - if only say 75% then it would be enough to mean all infrastructure may stop working - but still leaving millions of people hungry - and the same carnage would ensue.
- Delard
The worst case scenario would be if you were in a major city and there was a very sudden breakdown of food supplies - ie the huge logistics it takes to constantly re-supply all the supermarkets stops working.
If it was a localized incident then it wouldn't be too bad - the government would send in fleets of army trucks with supplies or something like that - however if it affected everywhere then the cities would become very bad places. Within a few days there would be riots / looting and within a few weeks millions of people would be starving to death in close proximity to each other. It would be terrible - vast numbers of people in the last stages of desperation. I don't know exactly how it would play out but I suspect most people in a big city would die.
Afterwards there wouldn't be anything in terms of food left in the cities - and probably not much of anything. Uncontrolled firestorms would probably turn cities into smoldering ruins as effectively as a nuclear strike.
In rural locations it wouldn't be nearly so bad. The lower population density would mean people could survive a lot longer on their supplies and locally farmed food. However there would be a massive influx of people smart enough to escape the cities - which might overwhelm any resources a small community had.
All of that is a worst case scenario - assuming a very sudden breakdown of food supplies. Far more likely (I think) would be a slower decline, over months or years - giving time for a more controlled readjustment. There are plenty of historical examples of this type of decline - but no recent examples of the sudden kind.
The only scenario I can imagine where there would be lots of resources left in the aftermath would be a pandemic disease that wipes out almost all the population (and somehow not you). It would have to be almost all - if only say 75% then it would be enough to mean all infrastructure may stop working - but still leaving millions of people hungry - and the same carnage would ensue.
- Delard
Re: What would there be to come back to?
What you describe is not really Bugging Out, your talking about being a refugee and hoping there is something left to eventually return to.cpslashm wrote:I've read some posts about bugging out, waiting until lots of people have died, then returning...
I am not sure that is part of many people's Prepping?
If your home area is evacuated you can expect there to be large-scale looting, I can't think of an example where this has not happened.
Unless your stuff is very well hidden, you can't expect it to be there when you get back.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
Cities and towns in the scenario you imagine unless fought for by the residents and PTB would burn along with the cars, the only reason they don't now is that someone who can is always there to stop it, even accidentally started or naturally ( and they do) we would loose a lot, this is something I think is skirted over or around in the movies, plus think about it if you were effectively forced from your home would you leave it for the ones forcing you out? the Russians actively destroyed all they could in WW2 so as the Nazis couldn't profit from it, plus booby traps left by residents would surely be common.
We humans haven't come as far as we would often like to think, getting that low down and dirty wont be exclusive to the likes of the marauders in the worst case scenarios we all hope will never happen, the original prepper concept of bug out, is a base human one, the flight side of the fight or flight reaction to a bad situation, so I'll say this if there's anything worth coming back to, it will be because someone thought it was worth staying and fighting for, and if it was tough, would they want you back?
Edit added yes something like The Stand, but even that is a huge fire risk and all.
We humans haven't come as far as we would often like to think, getting that low down and dirty wont be exclusive to the likes of the marauders in the worst case scenarios we all hope will never happen, the original prepper concept of bug out, is a base human one, the flight side of the fight or flight reaction to a bad situation, so I'll say this if there's anything worth coming back to, it will be because someone thought it was worth staying and fighting for, and if it was tough, would they want you back?
Edit added yes something like The Stand, but even that is a huge fire risk and all.
I have a strategy, it's not written in stone, nor can it be, this scenario has too many variables, everything about it depends on those variables, being specific is not possible.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
So just to clarify, bugging out is a one-way, permanent trip. Three or four weeks' supplies is just a stop-gap measure with which to hide before rebuilding from scratch?Plymtom wrote: if there's anything worth coming back to, it will be because someone thought it was worth staying and fighting for, and if it was tough, would they want you back?
SHTF around 2017.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
No, not at all, it completely depends on the situation.cpslashm wrote:So just to clarify, bugging out is a one-way, permanent trip. Three or four weeks' supplies is just a stop-gap measure with which to hide before rebuilding from scratch?Plymtom wrote: if there's anything worth coming back to, it will be because someone thought it was worth staying and fighting for, and if it was tough, would they want you back?
Re: What would there be to come back to?
[quote="Steveo82 No, not at all, it completely depends on the situation.[/quote]
Exactly it's an unknown entity, but lets face it bugging out is running away to safety, everything you leave behind is at risk, the size of the risk depends entirely on the severity of the situation, I took the implication to be that of the worse case scenarios, a flood for example is devastating in many ways but if it effects the ground floor alone and you have put stuff on tables and as much as you can upstairs, and that the area is well policed you can expect to have plenty to come home to can you not?
It's all pie in the sky as they say, TS may not catastrophically HTF in any of our lifetimes in the disaster movie scenarios we speculate about, yet it can and does hit many of us in exactly the ways we prepare for quite frequently as there are plenty of testimonies to on here
Thinking on in a humorous manner I could have simply answered the question what would be left to come back to? with a simple - worst case scenario = bugger all, best case scenario = exactly as you left it, and everything in between.
Exactly it's an unknown entity, but lets face it bugging out is running away to safety, everything you leave behind is at risk, the size of the risk depends entirely on the severity of the situation, I took the implication to be that of the worse case scenarios, a flood for example is devastating in many ways but if it effects the ground floor alone and you have put stuff on tables and as much as you can upstairs, and that the area is well policed you can expect to have plenty to come home to can you not?
It's all pie in the sky as they say, TS may not catastrophically HTF in any of our lifetimes in the disaster movie scenarios we speculate about, yet it can and does hit many of us in exactly the ways we prepare for quite frequently as there are plenty of testimonies to on here
Thinking on in a humorous manner I could have simply answered the question what would be left to come back to? with a simple - worst case scenario = bugger all, best case scenario = exactly as you left it, and everything in between.
I have a strategy, it's not written in stone, nor can it be, this scenario has too many variables, everything about it depends on those variables, being specific is not possible.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
Exactly that!Plymtom wrote:... bugging out is running away to safety
If you don't have somewhere to run to, somewhere specific, then it is not Bugging Out.
Bugging Out is what you do when you are in a frontline position that has become untenable, you pull back at short notice but with a clear plan and Preps in place to do so.
Leaving your home, and 85% of your Preps, is something you do as a last resort. Regardless of what you think, do not expect them to be there when/if you get back. Abandoning your home is not Buggin Out, not unless you have somewhere to be that is better.
The comparison I would make is.... On a sinking ship you might be tempted to jump in a lifeboat, but if the lifeboat is not higher in the water than your ship you are making a mistake.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
Some people might disagree malthouse. Some people would be in the life boat as it is lowered into the water. 
Some people bug out early to avoid the rush. 
I think bugging out is generally defined as...... Leaving your current day to day location(s) to travel to a pre arranged area/place (BOL-bug out location) until the S stops hitting fan.
BOL-a place the prepper deems more suitable then day to day location for current situation.
Returning to your day to location(s) is completely situation dependant.
Some people bug out early to avoid the rush. I think bugging out is generally defined as...... Leaving your current day to day location(s) to travel to a pre arranged area/place (BOL-bug out location) until the S stops hitting fan.
BOL-a place the prepper deems more suitable then day to day location for current situation.
Returning to your day to location(s) is completely situation dependant.
Re: What would there be to come back to?
To stick with the lifeboat example, yes many people do abandon ship prematurely. Only to then suffer many weeks of misery in a damp lifeboat or liferaft. There main vessel however goes on to be found intact and afloat. The lesson is that abondoning your provisions and bulk of your gear should not be done lightly. And neither is it Bugging Out.
Buggin Out is removing yourself from an untenable frontline situation as quickly as quietly as possible. The classic example being that you are driving home from work and all hell breaks loose, mayhem on the roads and social unrest all around. A Prepper would grab their BOB/EDC/GHB and make their way home on foot over concealing terrain, possibly stopping every few hours for a snack and a nap if the trek was a long and hard one.
The key points of Bugging Out (for me personally) are...
You are leaving a situation that was never intended to be permanent anyway,
You are leaving with an element of preparation in place, i.e. somewhere to go to,
Ergo you are not acting out of abandonment or desperation.
Buggin-in as a phrase makes no sense to me, its an oxymoron.
Buggin Out is removing yourself from an untenable frontline situation as quickly as quietly as possible. The classic example being that you are driving home from work and all hell breaks loose, mayhem on the roads and social unrest all around. A Prepper would grab their BOB/EDC/GHB and make their way home on foot over concealing terrain, possibly stopping every few hours for a snack and a nap if the trek was a long and hard one.
The key points of Bugging Out (for me personally) are...
You are leaving a situation that was never intended to be permanent anyway,
You are leaving with an element of preparation in place, i.e. somewhere to go to,
Ergo you are not acting out of abandonment or desperation.
Buggin-in as a phrase makes no sense to me, its an oxymoron.