group survival?

[ForgeCorvus]

Guys, can you pick one thread to argue in please ?

[lonewolf]

who's arguing? we are having an exchange of ideas and opinions.

[iSkynet]

Guys, can you pick one thread to argue in please ?

The Truth Is Born In Dispute.

[lonewolf]

anyway, I will agree to disagree and leave it there for today. I'm off to a large car boot in Somerset tomorrow morning (early) to see what goodies I can find.

[Vespa]

'Tis true the transition from one to the other would be traumatic.

I actually agree with with much of the above, it seems to me that you are describing the transition period from what we have today, a stable (ish) technologically based but precariously perched society that could easily fall, to another stable but less technologically based and perhaps more robust society.

Regardless of how bad the transition from one to the other, and leaving aside the argument as to which survival strategy is best (groups or individuals) if the lights world wide went out tomorrow and never came back on how long do you anticipate this die off or transition period to be and do you have an idea or opinion of how many people would survive to reach the newer stable society?

I'm interested in hear every ones opinion btw.

I have discussed this with a friend of mine many times( another prepper, same age as me) and we have come to the conclusion that the survival rate would be 5-10% and the die off would happen fairly rapidly over a possibly 6-9 month maximum period(possibly less).

Interesting. I've posted this before not too long ago but I read a summary of a Government report once in the early eighties that described what was likely to happen if there was a limited nuclear exchange between the UK ans the Soviets.
The most memorable thing from the report was that if the electricity grid went off and and couldn't be restored in pretty quick order (in less than two or three weeks) then it would basically all be over. No food distribution, no fuel, no anything.
The population would die off at the rate of 50% every six months.

So that at the start 60 million people, after six months 30 million people, after a year 15 million and after eighteen months 7.5 million people. The report stopped there and stated that the population was likely to stabilise somewhere below 10 million. I happen to think that the population in these circumstances would likely reduce to the lower end of you estimate at 5% of the original or 3 million people. Going on the Governments guess as to the rate it would take approx 2 years to reach this.

The report also stated that there would be some civil strife but that the overwhelmingly vast majority of casualties would come first from water borne diseases and later from starvation.

I don't give advice, it would be hypocritical because I rarely take it but as far as my own strategy to survive the two and a bit years of strife goes as follows.

1. Prep for water first, yo can survive three weeks with out food but only three days without water and less if what water you have is contaminated. I have the ability and fuel to boil, i have stores of water treatment chemicals and tabs to treat 30,000L of rain and spring water.
2. Prep for food. I have enough calories in the form of rice, pasta,sugar,and various beans and lentils to last two of us. Pretty crap diet. I also have salt, vitamin pills, spam and a few other things.
3. Prep for security. I got all this stuff, very valuable stuff in a post SHTF situation. But security doesn't mean walking around with a pump action shotgun slung over one arm and a machete in the other. It's far better to be able to walk around and no body bother you, and it's even better if your neighbors would jump to your defense if needed.

Groups IMHO offer the best chance of survival, not the sort of groups you find on "The Walking Dead" (though I really enjoy the show) running around having petty wars. It means you actually get to know your neighbors before any thing goes south, as strange as this sounds (and it may go against the grain with a lot of the prepping community), you get to know the farmers around you, the garage mechanic, the shop keeps, the people down the street, if you can walk past them before the SHTF and have a short conversation or a nod of the head then it's more more likely that you'll be able to do this AFTER the SHTF.
That's important because it'll be the neighbours that would take what you've got not marauding bands of chav's. One week after the lights go out there will be no fuel and no one will be driving anywhere, and walking/bike isn't fast enough to counter being robbed.

Next time you think about spending money on a prep think about spending £30 on a BBQ and invite your neigbours, don't think groups think communities. It makes for a better world before TEOTWAWKI.

Again just my two pen'oth and it probably goes against the grain.

[lonewolf]

yes that's the report my friend and I were basing our theories on. do you have a link to it, I would love to read it in full. I don't see the point in getting to know my neighbours when their all liable to be dead within a few months. funnily enough I'm on a "nodding" acquaintance with a lot of people here, some more than just nodding!

[J23]

Vespa is right, BBQ with neighbours won't hurt you, and politeness costs nothing. Besides nobody says you have to give your supplies to them
To be honest serious SHTF on massive scale may not happen during our life and people with your attitude will be remembered as grumpy, miserable bastards.
as about being in group - after serious shtf (as I said it may never happen) different groups will raise, some of them will be just odds, some of them big gangs. There will be gangs of chavs, gangs of religious fanatics with their sharia law (I've nothing against normal Muslims, I don't like religious fanatics who come to UK for better life from poor country and want to change this country into something as bad as place they come from), groups/gangs of different nationalities, groups of ex army people, gangs that did exist before shtf will go out from underground. and they will be looking for food, seeking easy targets rather than other groups. and guess what will happen if they come for you? your neighbours will say: just let them rob this miserable bastard, I never liked him anyway. there will be nobody to help you. (yes, yes, you suggested some time ago that you have firearms but these are good only if the owner knows how to use it)
and don't tell me crap about bugout locations where nobody will find you, as this is not USA, Canada or Russia. This country is pretty small, and there is not many places to hide and live normal life. Of course you can hide in a hole like a rat but normal people need fire to warm up or food preparation and the smoke will be seen from miles
But I must say you were right about 2 pages ago when you wrote that people addicted to facebook, twitter, instagram and other pages where they post pictures of their asses so somebody can click "like" will die first they will die once broadband will shut for more than 24 hrs

[Briggs 2.0]

Vespa is right, BBQ with neighbours won't hurt you, and politeness costs nothing. Besides nobody says you have to give your supplies to them
To be honest serious SHTF on massive scale may not happen during our life and people with your attitude will be remembered as grumpy, miserable bastards.
as about being in group - after serious shtf (as I said it may never happen) different groups will raise, some of them will be just odds, some of them big gangs. There will be gangs of chavs, gangs of religious fanatics with their sharia law (I've nothing against normal Muslims, I don't like religious fanatics who come to UK for better life from poor country and want to change this country into something as bad as place they come from), groups/gangs of different nationalities, groups of ex army people, gangs that did exist before shtf will go out from underground. and they will be looking for food, seeking easy targets rather than other groups. and guess what will happen if they come for you? your neighbours will say: just let them rob this miserable bastard, I never liked him anyway. there will be nobody to help you. (yes, yes, you suggested some time ago that you have firearms but these are good only if the owner knows how to use it)
and don't tell me crap about bugout locations where nobody will find you, as this is not USA, Canada or Russia. This country is pretty small, and there is not many places to hide and live normal life. Of course you can hide in a hole like a rat but normal people need fire to warm up or food preparation and the smoke will be seen from miles
But I must say you were right about 2 pages ago when you wrote that people addicted to facebook, twitter, instagram and other pages where they post pictures of their asses so somebody can click "like" will die first they will die once broadband will shut for more than 24 hrs

Everything you've written about the different types of gangs is just in your imagination, right? You're not serious. It seems you're scaremongering to make a point about someone being a miserable bastard, whom I'm assuming is Lonewolf.

Perhaps you wouldn't mind expanding on how you prep to be a positive contributor to your group, for example, as water is the primary requirement for survival, tell us about your water preps that include the ability to provide clean drinking water and sanitation for your group.

[Memphis]

Not sure how to quote but i agree with you Vespa on the idea of community, if we in my street can stay in our homes, ill live off of my food stores and they live off theirs, and we can provide some mutual support to each other then i imagine ill be happiest like that

Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk

[J23]

Wait wait. I didn't call him bastard. I suggested that person behaving like he describes may be seen as bastard by neighbours. As about gangs: once law stops exist people will do bad things and they will stick together as groups ( remember riots from London few years back?). Go to worse areas of your town and you will see groups of people standing on streets and they don't look friendly. Once shtf they will hang together, don't you think so?
As about my prepps I am rather beginner and I am not preparing for massive shtf but rather for short term problems so will never stock more than months supplies. As about gathering water, there is beck close to where I live an I can boil the water in the back garden even by burning bits of my fence