Backcasting

[hobo]

I've just replied to new member Kev and mentioned that I've been doing a Backcasting written exercise today.

Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. OK maybe, in this case, not a desirable future, but rather several possible futures.

I've been backcasting from 2020 using 3 scenarios - 'Normal', 'Hard Times' and 'SHTF'.
Hard Times seems the most likely scenario at this point but there's lots of overlap between the 3.
Both the TTIP and Austerity threads prompted me to sit down and do some planning.

Has anyone else tried this? I'm finding it valuable in beginning to focus my thoughts.

[Arzosah]

How interesting! I've done that as an exercise on the personal level, but I didn't use it for long (too busy in the present, which is exactly why backcasting could be so valuable, to focus the energies!). Do you have a linkie that talks it through, hobo?

[hobo]

I haven't got a link, sorry.
I was going through some notes from a course I did last year and found the idea amongst them.

[grenfell]

I'll admit to never hearing the term before so obviously have not done any sort of written exercise. I suppose up to a point I have ( and probably others too) planned for something or other in the near future and have gone through steps mentally so perhaps the concept isn't completely alien. I'd like to see someone's example if such a thing was possible and hopefully see one written several years ago just to see how the plan was stuck too or adapted as circumstances changed.
Actually the more I think about it I suppose it is similar to a business plan , which I have done written down . That required predictions of how things should develop not that I've stuck 100% to it , still not starving yet.

[Arzosah]

Its quite an NLP sort of thing - they have the concept of "installing a future memory", I think its called. I'm not sure if they work the steps out or brainstorm or what.

[adrian007]

I've not heard the term before, I think have done it accidenatlly.

I figured having had a 'back to square 1' style divorce, (ex was a lawyer) at the age 40 I couldn't start again. For the first time ever I really thought about the future.

Firstly, I know we (me and new wife) can't afford food in retirement, neither of us have a public sector pension.

So, we bough bought some land, and we're planting trees - when I retire they will be mature and fruit/nut bearing and suitable for firewood.

Having both had our own SFTH moments, we are also setting up so we stand a decent chnace of being self sufficient - solar, borehole etc

If all goes really well we also have plans on how to to make a living from the land, quit my day job and and maybe build a house on it. The upside plans are a bonus that has evolved. It wasn't the starting position. We keep on having moments where we realise things.

[Hamradioop]

Backcasting methodology link

http://dux.typepad.com/dux/2011/08/meth ... sting.html

[hobo]

Thanks HR!