Lockdown?

[omega man]

Sorry, but you can't possibly know that.

You've just quoted your own post and contradicated yourself.

Apologies the first post was finger trouble, I was quoting Omega man
It seems the general view in here is that this pandemic is being over hyped
I don't share that view.

Hi HedgeHopper, I think this was a misunderstanding of the written word type.. Indeed I agree with you that this pandemic is very serious!!, I was just iterating that the woes in Italy may actually look more like other affected countries if we were lucky enough to have the same level of data/scrutiny.
I am sure if we were chatting in a pub (2m apart! ) we'd have ended up on the same analytical page.

Peace
OM

[Lone]

I reckon conspiracy theorists would have a field day with this, likely suggesting that the whole thing has been exaggerated in order to test United worldwide reaction and prevention measures to source a pandemic it and keep it contained.

If so, many countries appear to be severely lacking in preparation.

I recently watched a film called Contagion I think, starring Kate Winslet amongst others...

[Arwen Thebard]

From the original post question on the 26th Feb:

"Do you think we will start seeing lockdowns in the UK as we are seeing in Italy?"

17 days ago I would have said not, this morning I would say definitively yes.

Given the Uk's current delay strategy, I would guess by the end of March. (It's already too late IMO)

[grenfell]

Bill Shankley is quoted as saying football is more important than life or death and it seems the glorious game is one step ahead of the government with regards to shutdowns.
The government , any government , is in a bit of a no win situation here. No lockdowns and the virus can spread , lock things down and close schools and the like and that can reduce the number of care workers and nursing staff that are needed to fight the virus...

[cbp125]

schools in Austria have closed, except for emergency workers to ensure their childcare is covered. Its a simple solution the rest of Europe has already worked out

[itsybitsy]

Tory govt Arwen. Rich people with a lot of money at stake. Stock market is far more important than a few peasants.

Stop it.

[diamond lil]

Spain to be placed under 15-day nationwide lockdown – Sanchez

Spain is to be placed under nationwide lockdown as part of state emergency measures to control the spread of coronavirus, prime minister Pedro Sanchez has announced.

Following in the footsteps of France, Sanchez said that shops will close for 15-days. Pharmacies and those selling other basic necessities will be exempted.

He added that the crisis requires “extraordinary decisions” and confirmed that the government has agreed a state of emergency.

Armed forces will be available to help in the response effort if needed.

[omega man]

so this from the bbc;

"The major downside of herd immunity, according to Birmingham University's Prof Willem van Schaik, is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover.

"It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs, but we are conservatively looking at tens of thousands of deaths, and possibly at hundreds of thousands of deaths," he said."

source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

OM

[MancLife]

Influenza may not always be thought of by most people as a serious illness – the symptoms of headaches, runny nose, cough and muscle pain can make people confuse it with a heavy cold. Yet seasonal influenza kills up to 650 000 people every year.

The death rate for seasonal flu is around 0.1% of those who catch it, C19 is estimated to be around 1% so there will be 10 times an many deaths. What is more worrying is that this is an estimate as Italy's death rate is currently at around 5-6%.
If 60% of the world population catch it (which is the estimate) and the death rate is the same as in Italy then 233 million people would be killed. Add the that the main mutation S to L strain made it more contagious and more virulent and it could get even worse if it mutated again.

The thing is it's new and therefore an unknown entity. It could fizzle out into nothing, it could wipe out millions we just don't know yet. Even, if it does turn into something and nothing it doesn't end there as the ripple affects could be much worse. For example many more people died from the weakened infrastructure caused from the fight against Ebola than actually died Ebola itself.

I would recommend anyone wanting scientific and balanced updates on Covid19 watch Dr John Campbell on you tube.

[Plymtom]

For my two penneth - the stats we are quoting here are by and large guesses, the experts do not know, the main figures from different countries we are hearing are confirmed cases, and deaths, no one knows how many cases altogether anywhere a doctor I know suggests the number who actually have it is unknown and probably one hell of a lot more than proven cases, we wont know, because we cannot and will not know without testing everyone, one figure I would like confirming is the death rate as a percentage of population for common flu etc, those figures we should know, we know how many of us there are, and we know how many deaths can be attributed to a given cause.
Ultimately I don't care what the stats are, I'm afraid of the flu for myself and family, and I'm more afraid of this, if at all possible I want to avoid it, as for herd immunity? After you Boris and all your wealthy pals!