New prepper like brand new

[Frnc]

Just seen Frnc's linkie to the Cheshire documents - I love an impact/likelihood grid!

AOL! Yes. Me Too. Decent document, but like the rest of that site it's >SIX YEARS out of date. The Emergency Response Doc was written 2017: Looks rather like someone on Halton Borough Council had to keep an intern busy.

The grid is a bit guesswork and we can populate our own copy of the grid with our perception. Because it's particularly set for Cheshire (2018) , you should review your own anyway. I see that grid has nothing in it for likelihood=1 or likelihood=5, so I think it's a bit wrong.

It does highlight how we get max bang for our buck by not focussing on absurdly unlikely scenarios and prep for things that are either high risk, or high impact, or both. But it also shows how we can cover multiple scenarios in one plan, such as an extended pantry which is useful for most risks.

As one who lives in Cheshire, I wish they'd pay equal attention to the risk of getting the suspension ripped off my car by the impact of a pot-hole! Grrr.

, we don't want people preparing for the worst case only, that's counter productive, the smaller events should still be safeguarded against, that's what I think.

HTH

The little issues are more likely but the kit overlaps into the big issues ..

Just think 5 years ago the threat of pandemic was probably seen as small by many, Who would have foreseen the lockdowns and toilet paper shortage

We would ! We Did! They laughed!

It's been an insane last few years. We preppers are the ones with the foresight and until recently we would have been laughed at as the insane ones, with our stash under the bed and our tilly lamp collection.

Fore-sight is the burden that we preppers carry.

Every area has a Community Risk Register. They are linked to by the government, local authorities, and I think the police. Some are more recent than others. Here are some more.
https://www.gmemergencyplanning.org.uk/ ... -register/
https://merseysideprepared.org.uk/media ... ter-pf.pdf

They don't include meteoroid strike, which is low probability but could have major impact (literally!).

I guess likelihood is within the next few years or decades, not ever, hence pandemic only scores 4 etc.

Another site to look at is the Cambridge Uni Risk Studies centre. They also have written about the risk of civilisational collapse, I've done threads and/or posts on both. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/

[jennyjj01]

Thanks.
As preppers we also look at our domestic situation. E.g. the health situations of various members, or our rooves or employment situation.
Maybe we should map out plans for those things.

[Frnc]

Thanks.
As preppers we also look at our domestic situation. E.g. the health situations of various members, or our rooves or employment situation.
Maybe we should map out plans for those things.

You could write a list of your biggest concerns, plus whether you can do anything, and what. Some things you can control, to some extent.

Like for me, giving up smoking saved me a lot of money and reduced the risk to my health. Losing 3 stone also reduced risk. I need to cut down my booze intake though. I was lucky the pandemic and roof problems came after I retired, as the lump sums provided a buffer. Being in debt and living hand to mouth was a big risk factor. Now we have inflation which I can't control, but I can do some things, like spend less on whisky.

As Donald Rumsfeld famously said

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."

[Trojanhorse]

This is very interesting I read a post about two types of people who prep really risk preparing people like to have all eventualities covered and then lunatics haha that’s me it’s good to hear this side as I’ve never really thought about it this way and yes these all seem like more realistic scenarios so thanks

I think this is very true and I would also say look to bug in if you can and keep the camper ready to go

[jennyjj01]

I think this is very true and I would also say look to bug in if you can and keep the camper ready to go

If social unrest becomes so bad that you feel vulnerable in your castle, think how vulnerable you would be in a highly sought after camper van. You could maybe try to hide it, but if you camp near to resources, you'd also be near looters and other refugees.
Bug out or bug elsewhere would only work if you could get to a place of safety.

[Trojanhorse]

I think this is very true and I would also say look to bug in if you can and keep the camper ready to go

If social unrest becomes so bad that you feel vulnerable in your castle, think how vulnerable you would be in a highly sought after camper van. You could maybe try to hide it, but if you camp near to resources, you'd also be near looters and other refugees.
Bug out or bug elsewhere would only work if you could get to a place of safety.

Thanks for the obvious. I agree with you if there is social unrest but most other 'issues' that arise a camper van would be useful.

[Mimijones16]

Hiya Mimi, welcome from a couple of pensioners on Merseyside!

Hello

[Mimijones16]

Hi everyone lovely to meet you all and thanks for your advice and replies . I will keep active in here and let you know what I’m doing etc