So what will you do if the oil runs out?

[diamond lil]

Very good input so far, am enjoying this thread and other people's thinking. Thank you!

[the-gnole]

I have the electric solar panels, but that isn't going to be enough for a lot more than lighting at the moment, Need to add more batteries and inverters, but that isn't going to solve very much.

Oil products are vast, and when they stop so will a lot of the stuff we have achieved in the past 200 years, but after the mass die off, and we are talking billions world wide, possibly tens of millions in the UK, those that are left will be struggling to get things going again with what has been left.

Methane gas production is a simple one to do on a local level, but the bulk storage is a bit of a problem as is getting it to the correct pressure to burn, but it can be done.

I would if possible think about getting an old mill house, so at least I would have access to a good stream or river nearby to power turbines and water wheels.

Wind pumps can be used for drawing water from under ground as well as hand pumps even buckets from a well.

There are a few good and still working steam powered ploughs, saw mills and other equipment, summer time is a good time to go and see this happening, a list from the last year, http://www.melright.com/music/whatson.htm

Lots to think about, lots to do, but the first thing to do is survive the event.

[diamond lil]

Well I'm talking more about when elect gets too dear to afford, or the power stations dont cope and we get blackouts, or action on the continent that might affect our supply.
There wouldn't be a problem up here with water at any rate, there are still plenty of mill lades.
I dont think a few steam engines will do much good to the vast majority though - maybe we'd be a lot better with a pair of horses.
- and nobody so far has mentioned the canals....!

[the-gnole]

Canals are few and far between when it comes to inter county movement though, they were removed when the railways came along, then the railways were reduced when the roads became more popular.

Running a team of horses and getting all their equipment will be an interesting task, as it is more likely a museum piece these days, tacking up a pair of Shire horses and working them is certainly not a job many people could do, and then there is the care of the horses, stabling, smithing, vets etc etc.

Not many horses can be used for pushing a cart or a single or double bladed plough. Is there enough breeding stock to re-establish a good supply?

Well we do have all the Off-grid kit going up so electricity can still be availbale, but reducing our levels of use would help us all.

[Triple_sod]

Can we still do everything with coal fired machinery though? Are there any coal-fired steam machines left? What about the harvesting and farmwork?

Then of course you have the chemical fertilizer, most of that’s derived from oil in some way or another.

[Ian]

I see where you are coming from now. My prediction:

Energy prices will rise until people squeal. The government then steps in and say that renewables can't replace oil and gas but nuclear can but will take 20 years to bring on-line. So you had better be in favour of them as we will only have three choices, nuclear, expensive or none.

Existing nuclear power stations will have their lives extended (this is happening today, each station is inspected and its life recalculated yearly) new nuclear will be built, renewables will take up the slack for fifteen years, shortages will happen then as nuclear comes on stream we all breath a sigh of relief.

We should have been building nuclear ten years ago.

[luxor]

Energy prices will rise until people squeal. The government then steps in and say that renewables can't replace oil and gas but nuclear can but will take 20 years to bring on-line. So you had better be in favour of them as we will only have three choices, nuclear, expensive or none.

Existing nuclear power stations will have their lives extended (this is happening today, each station is inspected and its life recalculated yearly) new nuclear will be built, renewables will take up the slack for fifteen years, shortages will happen then as nuclear comes on stream we all breath a sigh of relief.

We should have been building nuclear ten years ago.

this will keep the lights on when they are up and running
but will not solve the farming or transport problems

[the-gnole]

Energy prices will rise until people squeal. The government then steps in and say that renewables can't replace oil and gas but nuclear can but will take 20 years to bring on-line. So you had better be in favour of them as we will only have three choices, nuclear, expensive or none.

Existing nuclear power stations will have their lives extended (this is happening today, each station is inspected and its life recalculated yearly) new nuclear will be built, renewables will take up the slack for fifteen years, shortages will happen then as nuclear comes on stream we all breath a sigh of relief.

We should have been building nuclear ten years ago.

this will keep the lights on when they are up and running
but will not solve the farming or transport problems

Transport will more than likely be going to electric as well, the technology is "getting there" and a few years time will be even better, farming, well that needs population reduction to make it work, without the oil based fertilisers that will not take too long to achieve, but the skill sets of farming the old fashioned way are pretty much gone. Diesel engines were designed to run on peanut oil, so there are ways to keep some form of machinery going, but wind, water and solid fuel will also play a big part in that.

[Triple_sod]

this will keep the lights on but will not solve the farming or transport problem

Of course they do already have electric cars maybe they’d come into their own, dunno about an electric combine harvester though. There’s all that talks of biodiesel and other none oil based fusel maybe something would come of that.

Personally though I think were near the end (or is it the beginning.... ) It’s like one of the Donny lads said at the last Yorkshire meet-up ‘all great civilizations have one thing in common, they eventually collapsed’.

So my prediction is;

Oil runs out and pretty soon after ‘SHTF’ (if it hasn’t already happened), either by some ‘big event’ or more likely a gradual collapse of infrastructure.

Eventually things will stabilize, and you’ll be left with an agrarian society that’s probably lost a good deal of its technological advancements. Maybe it won’t be ‘back to the bronze age’ but certainly I doubt much will endure from after the industrial revolution.

I know that all sounds farfetched at the minute, but historic precedent says otherwise....

[Technik]

I see where you are coming from now. My prediction:

Energy prices will rise until people squeal. The government then steps in and say that renewables can't replace oil and gas but nuclear can but will take 20 years to bring on-line. So you had better be in favour of them as we will only have three choices, nuclear, expensive or none.

Existing nuclear power stations will have their lives extended (this is happening today, each station is inspected and its life recalculated yearly) new nuclear will be built, renewables will take up the slack for fifteen years, shortages will happen then as nuclear comes on stream we all breath a sigh of relief.

We should have been building nuclear ten years ago.

If you compare how much money is being pumped into nuclear technology and renewables than you'll see why the second ones are so much behind. I can't remember exactly the figures but it was something in the figures of around £20m/year for renewables and £2bn/year for nuclear. Someone simply makes too good money on nuclear energy.

Like posted before the best way out of this is a mix of old way of living and new technology. My not so distant plan is to have a small wind turbine which here in Scotland works a treat, solar panels, rain gathering roof, wood stove, led lighting in the entire house and a couple more things and I was actually considering a horse for farm work but don't know much about them.