Preppering for what?

[lusoprepper]

Hi all,

I'm new both in the forum and the world of prepping!

As I explained in my introduction, this all came about when the pandemic forced me to become a prepper. It opened my eye to how little we are prepared for life disruptions and how easy it is to become more prepare then the general population.

I decided to become prepared and wanted to bring my family onboard, but the first question from my daughter made me stop and think!

Her question was a simple one, “We are preparing for what?"

I decided that, before buying survival kits or stoking on toilet paper, to put on paper what I was preparing for! I came up with 5 levels of preparedness with a scenario for each of them.

With that I can now build on what I need to be prepared for each level (I'm on level 2 currently).

It would be great if I can get some thoughts on the way I'm approaching prepping and some enhancement tips!

###################5 levels prepping framework#############################

Level 0 (3 days disruption)
Scenario: General strikes with disruption of supply chains, transportation, and services (hospitals, pharmacies, etc..). Disruptions are limited to specific products or services which may cause temporary shortages of some products, for example some fresh food products, gasoline, medicines, and others.
Strategy: Prepare
Example: Several strikes and road blockages in France have disrupted supply chains of gasoline, diesel and even food.

Level 1 (1 to 2 weeks disruption)
Scenario: Floods or wildfires affecting utilities (electricity, gas, water) and/or supply chains. Disruptions are localized geographically and only some services and products may be affected, however there may be shortages and/or rationing. Law enforcement and civil protection team on the field to try to minimize the effects of the emergency. Utilities teams on the ground to get the utility services back, but it may take days for the services to be fully back.
Strategy: Prepare
Example: Boscastle Flood of 2004 or UK Floods of 2007

Level 2 (1 to 2 months disruption)
Scenario: Health pandemic has driven the government to issue curfews and social gathering restrictions. Rationings may be in place and access to supermarkets may be restricted. Utilities and communications working but may suffer rationings. Disruption may be regional, national, or supranational, however national, and local governments are operational and Law enforcement and civil protection team are working and maintaining social peace.
Strategy: Prepare
Example: Covid-19 2020/21

Level 3 (2 to 6 months disruption)
Scenario: Natural disaster (big earthquake) has disrupted supply chains and utilities (electricity, gas, water, or telecommunications). It will take weeks to bring utility services back and they may suffer disruptions once they are back. Disruptions may be regional or national, however national, and local governments are operational and Law enforcement and civil protection team are working and maintaining social peace. International help on the way but may days or weeks to reach people in need. Normality may take up to 6 months to be re-established.
Strategy: Prepare or Evacuate
Example: 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake

Level 4 (6 months to 1 year disruption)
Scenario: Major natural disaster (mega volcano, big earthquake with tsunami), or a war, affecting one or more countries. Severe disruption of supply chains and utilities at a national level, with local government powerless and national government struggling to operate quickly. Law enforcement and civil protection on the ground but with many limitations, the military may have been called to support keeping the social peace. International help on its way but it will take months for utilities and supply chains to be put back online.
Strategy: Prepare or Evacuate
Example: Earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011 or Indonesia 2018

Level 5 (+1 year)
Scenario: A big global catastrophe (massive solar flare, major asteroid impact, nuclear winter) brings total chaos across the globe with collapse of most governments and society in general. Supply chains don’t work, food and energy production come to a halt, water, electricity, and telecommunication networks stop immediately or decay over short period of time. Military and law enforcement maintain some pockets of security in some areas. Society has we know it pretty much collapsed!
Strategy: Survive…long term!
Example: Major solar flare brings down the entire electrical grid!

[grenfell]

I would say most of the preppers on here are of the unglamourous type meaning we prep for really quite mundane things , shortages in the shops , fuel strikes , short power cuts and so on rather than end of the world things. It's the mighty oak and acorn thing , start off with potentially inconvenient events rather than life threatening ones. Having a stash of beans is good just in case tesco run out but they also work if you have to stay locked up in the house. Buying in bulk can also be a prep against inflation to a degree. If you are aiming at getting the family on board start simple and small . Going down the armoured bug out truck to counter zombie hoards will scare them off. Another thing to think about with plans is they must be adaptable , remember the old saying that no plan survives first contact or the best laid plans of mice and men which basically means there's every chance something will go a different way to how you envisage and you'll need to be able to change track.
Above all try to enjoy prepping as a sort of hobby. Don't get too worked up and pessimistic about what might happen and what kit you need.

[jennyjj01]

Hi all,

I'm new both in the forum and the world of prepping!

As I explained in my introduction, this all came about when the pandemic forced me to become a prepper. It opened my eye to how little we are prepared for life disruptions and how easy it is to become more prepare then the general population.

I decided to become prepared and wanted to bring my family onboard, but the first question from my daughter made me stop and think!

Her question was a simple one, “We are preparing for what?"

It looks like you've given it some useful thought. Nice work.

Just a few random thoughts.....
Think of solutions that help with more than one scenario. E.g. A well stocked pantry and a few hundred pounds in the home safe, can help with pandemics, most bug in scenarios, and even be escape money for short hotel stays, unexpected expense, loss of banking system etc.

Stocking an expanded pantry can cost very little: The benefits of buying trays of tins of food can save money and counter some inflation.

Heat, light, water, food, shelter. Pretty much covers everything. Get some fallbacks for each, such as a small heater, LED lamps, Stored water, extended rations, a tarpaulin.

For food, try to store what you eat and eat what you store. Adapt your diet if need be to have rotation.
Consider learning how to make/grow food, even if you only play at it for now.
For water, a big decision, Store it? Take taps for granted? Prepare to harvest puddles? Filter/capture/ disinfect.
For cooking, a simple camping stove and some gas for £30 can serve you well in the short term.
Be a grey man. Keep schtum about any preps you make. In the first instance, you can get mocked, but if TSHTF, you might find people knocking at your door, with potential hostility.

Batteries for lamps.... Get good rechargeables like IKEA LADDA AA or other Eneloops.

Consider making your own energy with some capacity for solar.

Keep family on board.

And read this forum and interact here. If you see a question you can answer, do so. If you have questions, fire away.

That's enough to start you off.
Stay safe.

[GillyBee]

Hi,

I think you have summed up the main scenario levels very well. Jenny's comments are very solid but I would also add the suggestion that you take every opportunity to improve your practical skills so that you can adapt, mend and bodge solutions if the usual option is not available. This includes cookery, mending/sewing/knitting, woodwork, basic plumbing & electricals, basic car maintenance/repair as well as first aid and basic home medicine.

You just have to think back to the pandemic to understand how useful being able to fix a problem tap without access to a plumber would be. And being able to do simple clothes mending/altering both saves money now and helps if the shops don't have suitable replacements.

[jansman]

Hi,

I think you have summed up the main scenario levels very well. Jenny's comments are very solid but I would also add the suggestion that you take every opportunity to improve your practical skills so that you can adapt, mend and bodge solutions if the usual option is not available. This includes cookery, mending/sewing/knitting, woodwork, basic plumbing & electricals, basic car maintenance/repair as well as first aid and basic home medicine.

You just have to think back to the pandemic to understand how useful being able to fix a problem tap without access to a plumber would be. And being able to do simple clothes mending/altering both saves money now and helps if the shops don't have suitable replacements.

I couldn’t agree more. I am currently doing usual maintenance work at home, but now I am not going to be here too long ( I am told) every job I do , my wife helps and makes a video too, so that she can do the same job when needed.

[jennyjj01]

Every job I do , my wife helps and makes a video too, so that she can do the same job when needed.

Good idea. That's proper prepping

[Nurseandy]

The video is a good idea.
I fix everything around the house and the cars so if (when) anything breaks I grab closest teenager and make them help. They're sometimes a bit grumpy but one day I like to think they'll thank me. I always tout it as if you know how to fix it you've got a choice whether to do it yourself or pay someone else, if you don't know you're forced to get someone.
And one day my girls will have cars and they need to gave an idea of how to get back on the road following breakdown or more likely a puncture.

[mbbaltic]

My girls' idea of prepping is to have our phone number on speed dial, sigh! They do acknowledge that my prepping has come in useful eg when Covid hit and we had plenty of loo roll. They just seem to think parents will always be here

[Frnc]

I think your method is a good idea. But I would have a look at https://cheshireresilience.org.uk/docs/crfrisk.pdf, and try to factor in the two factors they use, which is liklihood and impact severity. Pandemic scores top in both (4/5 likelihood, 5 severity. UK government links to this by the way.
Attacks on transport and crowded places scores High in plausibility. Large scale attacks on chemical, nuclear etc facilities are high impact but medium-low plausibility.

Chances of having to bug out are pretty low, but the impact of not preparing could be very high. The UK and American governments advise you to have a bugout bag aka emergency grab bag.

Of course the basics apply to many scenarios. Having a store of drinking water at home, for example. Make sure to keep it covered and change it once or twice a year.

Also make sure you are prepared with things like smoke alarms and maybe escape ladders etc.

[Happyhatter]

Like yourself became interested in prepping during the pandemic and started slowly building up stock of loo rolls, tinned foods etc I've found folk here friendly bunch so don't be afraid to ask anything someone will know the answer