Most likely to happen here?

How are you preparing
Red Doe

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by Red Doe »

Do y`know, it wouldn`t be a bad idea to list our skills we think might be barter-able here :D
A kind of skills bank. Or trading post. :D
Trade...I have surplus eggs to trade, and will be growing veg this year but am not sure there`d be any to spare (don`t worry, I`m not going on the EOTW this year! *touches wood*) just `playing`...
I usually have spare meat by way of hens and rabbits and the occasional sheep. :oops:
Skills...I tan leather, fur and can make many things out of hide, from clothing to bedding to rugs to insoles to boots and bags etc.
Um, that`s probably about it as skills go. I`m a basic cook and baker.
Oh....I can shoot bows, crossbows and can actually throw axes. (don`t ask :D )
My reenactment skills might come in handy....I can create bone needles, both for sewing and knitting, plus bone and horn buttons, buckles and various sundries.
I can card wool, spin and weave and do very basic knitting.
I can do naalbinding and sprang (kind of Viking knitting) for the fashionable post apocalyptic survivor. :lol:

Um..what else...*thinks*
OH! I can kill, skin, butcher just about any beast or bird or fish, come to that, for lunch.
I need to learn preserving though so will happily trade any of the above for someone to show me how. :D
Would also like to learn decent knitting ...especially cable!
I can also make herbal simples, tinctures and lotions for very basic medicine, and can happily stitch wounds.
How`s that?

Anyone wanna trade archery for rifle shooting?

(sorry Lil! I just realised I`m off topic again! :oops: Feel free to delete/shift this, sorry )
the-gnole

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by the-gnole »

diamond lil wrote:What do you think is the most likely major crisis/disaster to happen to us here in the UK?
The biggest concern I have heard of is going to be financial breakdown, apart from that "Major crisis/disaster" is going to be peak oil and its knock on effects, anything else is going to be pretty small, Terrorist attacks like a lot of other things are generally localised. Though a cyber attack could/will have major implications, but even then there are ways available to "go manual".

What ever things that come up in your "list of possibles" it is worth doing as much research as possible for ways to get around it.
lone wolf

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by lone wolf »

Lil
Following on from earlier the other problem we have with money going directly into out banks is thats its not real money anyway, i mean its digital numbers on a computer screen and it just gets transfered around via direct debits etc

If we had a bank shut down or UK crisis the money sat in the bank is worthless, its not even worth the paper that its NOT printed on (Gerald Celente qoute) so to echo what RD says, barter items/skills and real assets to trade would the obvious end result.

The only other way Lil is to draw the money or wages/benefits from the bank quickly as possible.
Ive been storing barter items for a while now, it may prove useless or useful, time will tell

Lone Wolf
User avatar
diamond lil
Posts: 10326
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2010 1:42 pm
Location: Scotland.

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by diamond lil »

I do that LW, ever since the RBS panic. We bank with them :shock:
Slimslim

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by Slimslim »

Though if you are financial canny and have a fair amount of money to invest there are a few ways to make a fair gain on the right investments...In that some small investment firms are being able to make massive gains whilst the majority of the large city business are making huge losses on the stock market. How? They are selling up any shares in Japan etc.. and moving into the commodity market by buying up wheat, rice, oil (whilst its lower in price because of the lack of Jap demand), gold and silver (Larger returns than gold atm). Although to be honest I have no idea about how you can actually sorta invest like this yourself but most of this is from my Step-Dad who runs his own on the side Private Equity business and works for a large channel islands based firm.
counsellor

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by counsellor »

I don’t want to criticise, alienate, offend, or denigrate anyone, and it is not my intention to cause upset. However, I would like to present a script voicing my own opinions and views based on my own observations, perceptions and feelings
It is a way of venting the soup that swims between my ears
I will apologize in advance for my dyslexic tendencies but I’m sure that you will understand my intent.

I believe that the human race has now or very soon going to reach a critical position that has never been experienced before in all human existence.
We have a global civilization that is on the point a massive collapse, the reason I say this is that I believe that there are circumstances that now exist that mean that it is now inevitability.
The first is that, almost the entire world has a total dependence on technology; even most of those in the 3rd world are supported by it in one way or another.

The global demand / market for materials, goods and services is now so interlinked and has been built around 1st world communication and technology systems that any failure of that technology will stop that world from working.
The danger of this situation isn’t that, it is a bad thing, or even that technology is common place and surrounds us in every form.
It is that few people understand even the theory / principals that it is based upon and even fewer, actual understand the mechanics of it and even less have the knowledge and the skill to repair or build any daily item we use from the floor up.

I see this as putting us all in a very vulnerable and exposed position. (Being potentially under the absolutely control of the very few or events out of our control).
I feel that we now have a whole generation of people that do not know or have the skills to control the world they live in. (and in many cases no interest) they are simply using technology that they don’t understand.
Furthermore, most people and I am focusing on the young, are now completely dependant upon it (what is known as black box tech) as they know nothing else or any alternatives.
Black box tech whether it’s black, silver or white is the equipment, tools and systems that’s operation is out of reach or understanding of the masses. This includes cars, fridges, washing machines, TV, computers, heating systems etc in fact most of the items that make modern life possible. It also includes our electricity, water, gas and communication systems and most importantly the systems on which all our food distribution network is dependent and the financial services that enable it all to work

So we will be fine as long as we continue to (play nicely) and trade in knowledge, designs, parts, and materials. However, as the worlds resources deplete and demand increases we cannot keep producing and taking as much as we want for the western cultures and ignoring the ever increasing needs of the many, without truly understanding how vulnerable we are.
Even the most basic need for fresh water is beginning traded and restricted in some areas where it is scarce and running out rapidly, without sustainable alternatives being available.

The second point is that, the western world in which I also includes all 1st world nations, have lost true direction and purpose i.e. fallen into a state of decay and decline.
Almost all without exception they are contracting except China who growth, up to now, has been based upon trade with the west.
Whilst a few other nations are trying to westernize such as India and Brazil

The reason for this global decline is many fold and I’m sure that we are all aware of the headline reasons.
However, there could be other underlying reasons, and for this I refer to various writings concerning the fall and decay of the Roman Empire model, and the fall of the British Empire.

It has been suggested that there are a number of factors that contributed to the end of the Roman empire, these include corruption, unsustainable debt, moral depravity, decadence, inclusion of the barbarians (this refers too the multicultural society), lost of control over borders and the out sourcing of all food suppliers from across the empire.
Where as the fall of the British empire was as a result of injustice and exploitation of both overseas and native peoples and resources to benefit individuals under the guise of a model society.
At this point I could draw many comparisons to those factors and our modern world but I believe those are obvious. Although one point of interesting could be the reluctance to acknowledge the decline. The Romans towards the end where obsessed with blood thirsty entertainment as a way of distraction from the impeding end. Well it has been estimated that since the release of Black ops (an x-box killing game) that over 82000 man years have been spent watching & playing whilst mindless TV now dominates most western homes.
The parallels to older now lost civilization are all too apparent, except today it involves the whole world which is even more interlinked and interdependent.

Now I wish to make clear this next section is purely an academic discussion
It is understand that a mayor factor for the de-fragmentation of both Empires was the increasing division of interests amounts it diverse population, And through no fault, it is happening across the world today.
It is my view, that if we surmise from what happen then and what is about to happen now. I would suggest that after annexation, each nation / race was contented to join and be part of the empire, as it offered many positives bonuses; (as does westernization today). However, they didn’t have the shared overall goal. And therefore, each segment took (as it has today) takes what it needs. I believe that they also tried to gain more influence in their own self interest rather than for the benefit of the entire culture whether that interest is individual or national.

I can see that in today’s world the issues are the same as it was then and centred around the greed for , power and influence (concentrated a round trade and investments / financial institutes) at the expense of others.

In order to partially counter this issue. Our current government’s policy is to build what’s called the “big society” and with good reason, although I already have the feeling that it has failed. I also believe the USA may also beginning to understand it might suffer the same fate as those in the past although it is approaching the problem from a different angle by contracting rapidly back into the states.

This lack of cohesion is understandable when we don’t have faith in our politicians, political systems, governments or religious leaders to act in our best interest and they lack any satisfactory plan for the future. In my mind the battle is already lost because we have already travels down the road of decay to far to recover.

So the final questions will have to be, when will it finally fail and what will follow?
There is a term call Social entropy this is based on the theory that complex social systems trend to break down partly due to the use of energy. This should include food production
Decay is often a slow complex process that has many contributing factors.
The rate of decay can sometimes be determined by where the rot sets in.
E.g. Trees that are diseased at the centre or roots will often look sound until one mayor event strikes then the whole tree collapses. And in my mind that is where we are today, we have built our house on a platform that few truly know the nature of and are able to maintain. Or in some cases don’t want too.
And it is my belief that the rot has taken hold and now it is just a matter of time or the combination of factors that will determine that rate of decline
There are many out there, that for many different reasons are undermining the whole fabric of our society, whether for personal gain or through well meaning intention or actions that unintentionally destroy.
The global civilization has grown too big and to fast to survive with too many things and people pulling in different directions, the demands are just too great for either us or the system to control. It now has a momentum of its own which is unstable and hence short lived.
How long before it goes out of control, well I could see the situation where one incident starts a chain reaction into rapid decline.

However I also have a sense that there is and would be a massive resistance to allowing a collapse without a fight. After all too many have too much to lose, (and that is exactly the force that might increase the rate of the fall (rats leave a sinking ship)).and so if you are powerless to prevent it. It’s going to happen whether you are happy about it or not. and there in lies the danger!
In a way we have created the structure that can only fail. It is complex and only works in a small number of ways using precise mechanisms. It is built on the need for defined levels of cooperation, ever expanding trade, and the uncontrolled use of resources and energy.
For example in England we have just 2 out of 7 nuclear power stations which are programmed to continue after 2018,
9 out 14 coal fuelled after 2015 And then about 43 very small gas generators
We are going to run out of power and as yet we have no alternative.

There is a saying “if it can happen, it will” it’s just a matter of time. And I believe it can happen.
As for what will follow? Well I believe that after a period of spreading anarchy in which the world population will undergo adjustment, caused by the effects of the conflicts, environmental effects and food / energy shortages. Then small diverse and complex groups will rise from the remains, utilizing what ever is still available, initially centred on the remains of strategically sound locations. Firstly at the edges then encroaching inwards.
I hope that by looking at history, that we can learn from our mistakes and lessen the worst.
lone wolf

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by lone wolf »

Well written and explained Counsellor, i would agree with your explanation and im of the opinion we are at the "end game" now or if not then we are very close

First we will have the world fiancial breakdown followed by resource wars and finally...it will most probably end in global war.

Lone Wolf
User avatar
scoobie
Posts: 1714
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2010 11:38 pm

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by scoobie »

Thanks for taking the time to bring those thoughts together and put 'pen to paper', was a great post.

Would you mind if I put that as an article on the main site, I think it's a worthwhile piece..
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail - Benjamin Franklin
Red Doe

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by Red Doe »

I agree with Scoobie, very well written and insightful. :)
counsellor

Re: Most likely to happen here?

Post by counsellor »

Sure Scoobie post as you think suitable
cos it's only my opinon :D :oops: